A Very Simple Game Red Sox Blog

Where is the Real Dice-K?

2011-04-24T09:55:00.000-04:00

The Fourth of July is the traditional halfway point of the MLB season. Easter Sunday has no such significance, although the season has started on Easter Sunday a couple of times. If this season started today, we Red Sox fans might still be talking about winning a hundred games. Every team goes through a couple of slumps, and the Sox got one of theirs out of the way early. The slump was so bad that they are 6-1 in their last seven games and still are three under .500.

Back in the mid 1960s, teams called other teams that they could beat on a regular basis "cousins." The Minnesota Twins of that era (Killebrew, Oliva, Kaat and company) were 42-12 against the Sox from 1964 through 1966. They were even 11-7 against Boston in 1967, but lost when it counted, when the Sox won the final two games of the season and the "Impossible Dream" pennant. Since the 2009 playoff debacle and Papelbon's famous meltdown, Boston has had that kind of relationship with the Anaheim Angels of Not Los Angeles, going 12-1 heading into the final game of the four-game weekend series.

The Saturday night game gave hope to those of us who stayed up, switching between the Sox and the Bruins, that things are starting to even out on this team. Carl Crawford had a couple of hits, Jacoby Ellsbury also had a couple to move above the Mendoza Line, with a couple of steals as well. But it looks like some aliens have captured Daisuke Matsuzaka and replaced him with a pod-person clone.

The entity that has made the last two starts wearing number 18 is clearly not the same one that started all of the last two seasons, or the first two starts this year. That number 18 was 13-14, gave up four and a half walks and sixteen base runners per nine innings, and was impossible to watch. This guy has pitched 15 innings in his last two starts, given up two hits and no runs, and walked only four batters. It's like Pedro has come back.

This year the Red Sox switched pitching coaches, as Saint John Farrell moved on to manage the Toronto Blue Jays and Curt Young came to Boston. Regular readers (I know there are one or two of you out there) know that I was never a fan of Farrell because, if something went wrong with a pitcher, Farrell could not get that pitcher back on track. Look at the World Champion Giants last year, with Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez 1.35 and 1.54 ERAs after washing out here. Look at Brad Penny, who went 7-8 here in 2009, then 4-1 for the Giants down the stretch. (Maybe that says something about Dave Righetti, the Giants pitching coach). Look at Daisuke Matsuzaka, who never even came close to duplicating that 18-3 season of 2008, the luckiest 18-win season in baseball history.

Which brings us to this season, and Curt Young. Maybe he saw something wrong in Dice-K's delivery. Maybe he allowed Dice-K to go back to some of his Japanese training methods. Maybe it's just plain luck. No pitching coach is going to turn a player around immediately, but maybe with spring training and a couple of real starts behind him, whatever Young and Matsuzaka have been working on may be starting to pay off. After only two good starts, you hesitate to say a corner has been turned. Dice-K has proven to be pretty stubborn since getting here, and he could go back to the maddening Dice-K again, but if they had an award for pitching coach of the year, Curt Young would be an early favorite. Now if he could just bring back the gyro ball.

Manny Being Gone

2011-04-09T18:03:00.000-04:00

Oh, sure, he's quit before. He quit on the Red Sox. He quit on the Dodgers. He quit on the White Sox. But it's never been like this. This time he really quit, before they could toss him out on his ass.

Off to a 1-for-17 start with the Rays, one of the last remaining idiots from the 2004 Sox gave the baseball idiots of Tampa Bay and their cowbells the Cliff's Notes version of life with Manny. When he first arrives, it's great. What a wonderful teammate. Funny. Amazing work ethic. Marketing plans are made around him (remember Mannywood?) Starts off fast. With the Red Sox in 2001, in April he had nine home runs and was hitting .408. In 2008 he personally carried the Dodgers into the playoffs and hit .500 in their division series against the Cubs.

Then things start to go wrong. Here in Boston it began with the nagging hamstring injuries take him out of the lineup at key times and continued with behavior so off-the-left-field-wall that it bordered on bizarre, but just gets chalked up to Manny being Manny. He was the World Series MVP in 2004, but at the 2005 trade deadline, Manny was pulled from the lineup. The deal didn't go down, and Manny drove in the winning run against the Twins with a pinch-hit single. Just before he was traded to the Dodgers, Manny had pushed the Sox 70-something-year-old traveling secretary and had gotten into a fight with Kevin Youkilis.

In LA, he followed the great finish in 2008 with a 50-game drug suspension in 2009. By 2010 he was a regular fixture on the Disabled List, and the Dodgers released him. Manny signed with Chicago to the usual great fanfare, one home run and two RBIs.

The Rays got the entire Manny experience condensed into a two-month period. And now he's retired so MLB can't suspend him for 100 games.

It's clear that when he wanted to ramp up his game, Manny Ramirez turned to performance-enhancing drugs. He was on the leaked 2003 list of drug users, along with David Ortiz, Jason Giambi and A-Rod, and had a great 2004 season that ended with a World Series win. His 2009 suspension came just months after his great finish to 2008. His latest issue came as he was being praised for coming into Spring Training in great shape.

Manny was a model citizen in Cleveland. The Manny-being-Manny stuff really didn't begin until he got to the Red Sox, and continued for the rest of his career. Mood and behavior swings are one sign of drug use. So are constant muscle problems. And, as we have found over the last few years, so are increases in production that are so dramatic that they stand out.

It was a fun ride for Manny's fans. We all enjoyed watching him stride to the plate and power one out. But now facts are facts. Manny wasn't just being Manny. He was also being Barry Bonds.

It's Opening Day!!

2011-04-01T13:05:00.002-04:00

So, here we are at the beginning of another marathon, with people saying this might be the best Red Sox team ever. For that to be true, a lot of pieces will have to fall into place in just the right way. Pieces named Beckett and Saltalamacchia for example. I try to not get too up on the team, because the further up you get, the further down you go. That said, this is a team that is going to score a lot of runs. But, based on spring training, it looks like the pitching is not going to be what most people expect. Prediction: They'll make the playoffs, but they'll get there by winning a lot of 6-4 and 7-5 games.

As far as this being the best Red Sox team ever, well, when the club has been around for 112 seasons, there are a lot of teams to measure this team against. The early 20^th century championship teams had a lot of great players like Speaker, Hooper, Lewis, Young and the Babe. Then there's 1946, with three Hall-of-Famers. But to me the best team was the ill-fated 1978 team that led most of the year only to end up the season in a tie and, well, you know.

That club had four Hall-of-Famers on it: Yaz, Fisk, MVP Jim Rice and Eckersley. Add to that a couple of guys whose numbers are better than some Hall-of-Famers (Evans, Tiant) and some really good ones like Bill Lee, Fred Lynn and Bob Stanley. That team was 99-64, scored 796 runs, hit 172 home runs, led by as many as eight games and, well, you know.

Three Red Sox teams have won more than 100 games: 1912, 1915 and 1946. As this season starts, I'd settle for 98 wins. The last time they won 98 games was in 2004 and, well, you know.

--000--

Jet Blue Park, huh? It does kind of roll off the tongue pretty well. If the Sox were going to sell naming rights to the new Fort Myers ballpark, they could have done worse. CVS Stadium sounds awful harsh. But still, it does sound like it's referring to the tarmac where Jet Blue leaves its planes overnight. Can't wait to see it, though. It's the closest thing we'll ever have to a new ballpark.

Back at the beginning of the 20^th Century, when ballparks were first being built, they had a life of about 15 years. Of course, they were made of wood and had this nasty habit of burning down every now and again. The next generation was built mostly of concrete, with only some wooden sections to burn down. Places like Forbes Field and Shibe Park lasted about 50 years. Then everybody got the idea that giant donuts were the best way to go. Forbes Field gave way to Three Rivers Stadium and Shibe Park was replaced by Veterans' Stadium. They were built for both baseball and football and the sight lines were bad for both sports. But they had luxury boxes and other ways for the team to make money and distract the fans. That era lasted for only 30 years or so, until the owners demanded even more luxury boxes and even more ways to make money. Three Rivers Stadium gave way to PNC Park and Veterans' Stadium was replaced by Citizens Bank Park, as owners realized that honoring veterans made no money, while honoring a bank did.

Through it all, Fenway Park has just chugged along. Always small, always green, always with the same wooden seats that has given it the title of America's Most Cramped Ballpark®. The Sox stayed in Fenway not because they wanted to. The real reason is that the city and the state would not build them a new ballpark, as those other cities have done at least twice now. If Massachusetts had a Stadium Authority to build ballparks the way Maryland does, do you really think Fenway Park would still be around? But, here we are, about to celebrate the 100^th home opener. Even for those chilled fans who will be sitting in right field facing East Boston instead of home plate, it is a reminder that this ballpark is special, even if the only reason it still exists is New England frugality.

You Can Learn a Lot By Watching

2011-03-19T09:54:00.001-04:00

What have we learned from spring training so far, with the regular season just two weeks away?

You can't judge a player by his average.

The major-leaguers are mostly hovering around the .200 mark: Varitek .190, Lowrie .200, Crawford .206, Drew .207, Youkilis .212, Gonzalez .222. All these guys are looking for is two or three chances to swing the bat in a game. It's a chance to see some real pitching before getting out the pitching wedge and hitting the golf course. The exceptions to this are Pedroia, who is hitting .313 because he has no lower gear, and Ellsbury at .429 because he's out there proving that he really was hurt last year.

The top prospects are showing something.

Jose Iglesias is the real thing. He made a play in an early game (I think it was against the Yankees in Tampa) where he went to his left, dove behind the second base bag, jumped to his feet and threw the runner out. Plus he's hitting .320, but you can't judge a player by his average. The other prospect who looks impressive is Iglesias's fellow Cuban, Juan Carlos Linares. He is also hitting .320, plays all over the outfield and, depending on what he does at Pawtucket, could end up getting consideration as the regular right fielder next year – even ahead of Ryan Kalish.

Where have you gone, Lars Anderson?

The former #1 prospect has looked lost at the plate and has never displayed the power he was supposed to have. It seems like Lars has been around forever but he is only 23, and it sometimes takes a while for the power to kick in. Yet, with Adrian Gonzales around for the long term, there doesn't seem to be a place for Anderson in the organization, and with the numbers he has put up there may not be much of a trade market for him

You can always talk about trades, but talk is cheap.

There aren't a lot of openings on this roster, that's why so much of the news from the Fort is focused on the "battle" for the lefty specialist spot. Yet, there is always speculation about a trade, with Mike Cameron's name coming up. But unless there is a #5 starter out there that could be had for Cameron and a minor leaguer, it's unlikely to happen

Is it time to say goodbye to Wake?

Tim Wakefield seems to have no real role with this team, other than the guy who comes in during the third inning when Dice-K gets bombed. They could release him and let him test the marketplace for a 44–year-old who is totally inconsistent at this point, or they could try to talk him into retiring gracefully, give him a ceremony, like they did with Mike Lowell, and turn him into a NESN analyst.

Lester is #1

Jon Lester has been the ace of this team for two years now. Giving him the opening day start just confirms that

Lackey is #2?

Never saw that coming. Lackey is going to pitch 200 innings, will be 14-12 or 15-13, and give up a mess of hits. That's what he does

The rest of the rotation

I guess slotting Buchholz at #3 tells him that the team isn't sure he can duplicate or at least come close to last season. Yes, having a 17-7 season is impressive, but they want to see if he can do it again. Yet, throw out the 2-9 record in 2008, when he was really messed up, and his career totals are 27-12. Beckett is where he belongs until he proves otherwise, and Dice-K is an expensive mistake. If they traded him to the National League it might work out better, but he's lost in the AL East.

Papelbon

If he's pitching for the greatest contract in closer history, he's not off to a good start. Says he is OK, but still, his mechanics and his numbers have been off for two years now. How many saves is he going to blow this year? His record is eight.

Quote of the spring

Every time a pitcher gets hit hard, Terry Francona says he's "getting the ball up in the zone." Why can't they keep the ball down?

Spring Training Q's & A's So Far

2011-03-06T12:50:00.001-05:00

How good is Jose Iglesias?

As a fielder, at least, better than the reigning Gold Glove shortstop, which isn't really saying that much. But on Friday night, against the reigning Gold Glove shortstop's team, Iglesias went far to his left, almost behind the second base bag, dove, jumped up, threw off-balance and made the play at first. An Alex Gonzales-type play. Maybe even a Luis Aparicio in his prime play.

How bad is Daisuke Matsuzaka?

Yesterday he pitched three innings, gave up six hits and seven runs and walked two. He said after the game that he was working on his breaking pitches, which appear to need more work. By the way, when Dice-K arrived here in 2007 (wow, he's been here that long?) wasn't his strength supposed to be his breaking pitches, including the elusive gyro-ball? I know that's answering a question with a question, but yesterday was bad even for a number-five starter. The Marlins starter was Anibel Sanchez, one of the players the Sox sent to Florida in the Josh Beckett trade. He gave up no runs on one hit.

When is old good and new bad?

Yesterday NESN interviewed Tom Werner and the topic of the new ballpark in Florida came up along with some references to the 100^th anniversary of Fenway Park, which will be celebrated next year although this is the 100^th season the team has played there. Here's what I came away with from Werner's comments: City of Palms Park, which is 18 seasons old, is not state of the art any more and the Sox needed a new training complex to be competitive. Fenway Park, which is 100 seasons young, is still "America's Most Beloved Ballpark." The difference? Lee County is putting up $80 million to build the new ballpark there. Massachusetts has always refused to pay for new sports facilities.

Who will be part of "Your Pawtucket Red Sox" on opening day?

1B-Lars Anderson; 2B-Ryan Khoury; SS-Jose Iglesias; 3B-Yamaico Navarro; OF-Josh Reddick, Daniel Nava, Ryan Kalish; DH-Juan Carlos Linares; C-Luis Exposito; P-Ryan Miller or Alfredo Aceves.

Who is Juan Carlos Linares?

Another Cuban ballplayer who defected last year and was given a $750,000 contract to play for the Sox. He looks kind of like Matt Stairs who, by the way, is with the Nationals this year, still pinch hitting at age 42. Since playing for the Sox in 1995, Stairs has played for Oakland, the Cubs, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Texas, Detroit, Toronto, Philadelphia, San Diego and now Washington. According to Baseball-Reference.com, he has worn the following numbers: 3, 59, 25, 35, 12, 24, 30, 12 again, 11, 12 again, 25 again, 12 again, 24 again, 12 again and 16 and has made $18 million.

Are the Yankees going to trade for another pitcher?

Brian Cashman says "no," so the answer is "yes." Brian Cashman says it is unlikely that they will make a trade before June, so the deal will probably go down sometime this week.

Watching Albert Pujols Dance with the Cardinals

2011-02-20T19:46:00.001-05:00

It's interesting to watch a free-agent drama play itself out somewhere other than here, and the Albert Pujols situation spotlights the absurdity of baseball's finances. The player wants $30 million dollars a year for 10 years, which would cover him until age 41 (which nobody is worth – are the Yankees really getting that much more from A-Rod at $30 million than the Sox are getting from Kevin Youkilis at 12 million?). The Cardinals' payroll is barely $90 million. If they keep Pujols, one third of their payroll goes to Albert. Which means that they would probably be more competitive by letting Albert walk and spending the money on three $10 million players. Is there a market for Pujols at $30 million a year? The two biggest money teams have a lot invested in first basemen (Gonzalez and Teixeira), but both teams' DHs are getting up there. Posada is 40, Ortiz is 35, and both of them have declining numbers. Would the Sox pay the $30 million? Probably not. But the Yankees could, turning Pujols into a DH. Would Pujols, at age 31 want to turn into a DH? Well, from his statements and actions so far, it looks like he's looking mainly for the money and doesn't care what he has to do to get it. If someone will give him the 30 mil, and the contract includes a clause that says he has to wash Brian Cashman's car, it's a deal.

And once again we are talking about a great fan base that gets caught in the crossfire between a frugal ownership and unreasonable player demands. Cardinals fans are some of the best in baseball and they fill their new ballpark, which has all the bells and whistles that generate extra cash. Forbes says they generated $195 million in revenue, which ranked ninth in the game (The Sox generated $269 million by comparison). They could probably go to $120 million payroll with no problem. I don't want to get too mathematical here, but the Sox pay out 61% of their operating income in payroll. If the Cards went to $120 mil, they would pay out 61% of their operating income in payroll.

The fact is that most teams don't spend what the Red Sox spend (percentage-wise) because they don't have to. Look at the National League Central as an example. The Reds and Brewers call themselves small market, and there is no team that is getting away with using the "we're small market, we can't afford it" tag more than the Pirates. Houston is one of the largest markets in the country, but they just don't spend the bucks ($71 million payroll). The Cubs will spend, but do it stupidly (Alfonso Soriano). If there is not a smart big spender in the bunch, teams can get away with a smaller payroll and still win the division because there's no 800-pound gorilla to compete with. If the Red Sox were in another division, would they spend what they do? Probably not. They do it, and management knows they have to do it, to stay competitive with the Yankees.

Well, enough about economics.

Down in Florida, Sox management meets the press and says they are the underdogs. The Yankees, notably Mark Teixeira, are saying they are the underdogs. Which I guess they are, at least until Andy Pettitte comes out of retirement, which you know he will, just like his idol, Fat Roger. Or, until they send one of their catching prospects to Seattle to get Felix Hernandez.

Meanwhile, while the who-is-the-most-underdoggy battle goes on, Manny reports early to Tampa Bay, the Blue Jays say Adam Lind and Aaron Hill are ready to rebound and Baltimore has Buck Showalter managing for an entire season. At least some of the teams in the division are looking at 2011 on a positive note.

Sox Invite 20 Players to the Fort to Compete for a Job

2011-02-07T19:43:00.002-05:00

Two years ago it was Nick Green. Last year it was Darnell McDonald. This year it could be Paul Hoover, or Brent Dlugach, or nobody. The Red Sox have offered invitations to spring training to 20 players this year. They could be prospects, they could be has-beens, they could be never-weres, but they are hoping somebody ahead of them on the depth chart breaks down so they get a chance. This is their story.

Let's start with the prospects, guys like Ryan Lavarnway, one of several catchers on the roster and righthander Alex Wilson. They are a couple of years away from the majors at least, but this is really the first chance they have to show what they can do with the big club. Outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin, back for a second year, made the cut but, unfortunately, another outfielder Chih-Hsian Chang (yup, it's pronounced Cheech and Chong) didn't.

Then we have some sort-of familiar names like Rich Hill, the lefty from Milton, Mass., who is 22-20 in six seasons, mostly with the Cubs. 11-8 of that record is from 2007, so he's 11-12 otherwise. Pitched four innings in six games last September with the Sox, when everybody had given up hope, so you may not remember that. In the same category is Matt Fox, who pitched 1.2 innings last fall and on Sept. 28 pitched in the same game as Rich Hill!

Another name that may sound familiar is infielder Hector Luna, who has one career at-bat against the Sox, in Game 4 of the 2004 World Series (struck out against Alan Embree) and it came during a Luna(r) eclipse. Another former Cardinal is Dennys Reyes, this year's version of Tony Fossas, a mediocre guy who stays in the majors because he is a situational lefty. Reyes has played for the Dodgers, Reds, Rockies, Rangers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Royals, Padres, Twins and Cardinals and is not to be confused with Danys Baez, who has pitched for the Indians, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Orioles and Phillies. And don't forget Andrew Miller, who has washed out with the Tigers and Marlins (15-26 in five seasons) and is poised to wash out at Pawtucket this season.

Tony Pena, Jr. made the majors as a shortstop with the Braves and 2006. Traded to the Royals in 2007, he was their regular shortstop and hit .267. The next two years his games played slipped to 95 and then 40, and his batting average went from .169 to .098. So, guess what? He's trying to make it as a pitcher. Last year in the Giants system he was 3-2 with an ERA of 4.13.

And there's more: Randy Williams (WHIP of 2.32 last year with the White Sox), Jason Bergmann (flying under the radar with a 12-24 record in six seasons with the Nationals), Brandon Duckworth (eight seasons, three teams, out of MLB since 2008) and Clevelan Santilez, who should really be looking for his missing letter with the Clevelan Inians.

NESN is showing 13 games this spring, so be on the lookout for some of these players. They'll be the ones wearing numbers in the 80s and 90s. But, don't be upset if you miss them on TV. You can see most of them in person at Pawtucket in 2011. But they'll have lower numbers.

Groundhog Day

2011-02-02T07:13:00.001-05:00

Here it is Groundhog Day, when this baseball blogger digs through 50 inches of snow and sticks his head out of his burrow. If I see my shadow, it's 12 days until pitchers and catchers report. If I don't, well, it's still 12 days until pitchers and catchers report.

With the long off season almost over (but not the winter, unfortunately), it's time to take stock of what has gone on with our pals in the AL East.

One thing this winter has shown is the emphasis that is being placed on bullpens. One reason the Red Sox missed the playoffs last year was the bullpen, which reverted to being the bomb squad it was back around 2003, when the whole B.K. Kim/Chad Fox/Ramiro Mendoza bullpen-by-committee didn't work. So, here come Bobby Jenks, Matt Albers and Dan Wheeler, among others. Meanwhile, in New York, Pedro Feliciano and Rafael Soriano get added to the pen. With those two added to Rivera, Robinson, Logan, Marte and Mitre, you have to wonder what's in store for Joba Chamberlain. After years of moving from the rotation to the bullpen, the Joba Rules, and everything else, maybe the team has messed him up to the point where he's a mop-up guy.

On the starting pitching front, the Sox have stood pat this winter. But in New York, Plan B, after losing out on Cliff Lee, seems to be letting Andy Pettitte jerk them around while offering a contract to 38-year-old Bartolo Colon, who has won a total of 14 games in the last five years. Next thing you know, they''ll be bringing in 82-year-old Whitey Ford, their former ace, who has won a total of two games in the last 45 years.

The reverse is true with position players, where the Yankees have stood pat and the Red Sox have added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. The net effect will be to increase the Red Sox catchers' caught stealing percentages, as the last Red Sox catcher to throw Crawford out was Rich Gedman in 1987.

Outside of the rivalry, the team that has improved the most over the winter is the much-maligned Baltimore Orioles. In fact, the only team that has improved over the winter is the much-maligned Baltimore Orioles. The Birds added power at the corners with Mark Reynolds at third (32 home runs for Arizona) and Derrek Lee (19 home runs for the Cubs and Braves last year, but averaging 28 a year for his career), and the slick-fielding JJ Hardy at short to go with an already strong lineup. They are also closing in on signing Vlad Guerrero. Now they need some of their young pitchers like Berken and Bergesen to step up. We could be looking at the next version of what happened in Tampa Bay here.

And what has happened in Tampa Bay? Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez and the rest of the defending 2004 Champion Red…oh, wait a minute. Tampa Bay is the defending division champ, but that team is long gone. It takes money to keep a championship team together, and the Rays spent theirs on new AstroTurf for the Trop. Crawford, Pena, Wheeler, Soriano, Farnsworth, Aybar and Bartlett are gone, replaced by rookies. The Rays have always had a strong player development system, which is how they put together the championships, but now they have to step back and do it again. Plus, players like Ben Zobrist, Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez will now have set everyday positions, meaning that Joe Madden will not be able to do as much of the player switching and matching up that he loves to do.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have given new manager John Farrell a great welcoming gift by trading away one of his best players, Vernon Wells (to get an average outfielder in Juan Rivera and an average relief pitcher, Frank Francisco) and his #1 starter, Shaun Marcum (for a bunch of prospects). Pull out your little pad of paper and make note of that, John. You think a lot of clubs might be pitching around Juan Bautista to pitch to Travis Snider and newcomer Rajai Davis instead? Here's what the Jays owner, Paul Beeston, told a state-of-the-franchise event: "We don't want to overpromise, we want to overdeliver.We're not here to be a competitive baseball team. We're here to win the World Series -- and we're here to win the World Series on a sustainable basis. How long that's going to take, I'm not sure."

Um, OK, that sounds positive.

But at least the attitude is positive around here. The Red Sox spent the bucks to drive up NESN's ratings, and in the process built a really good team, as long as they can stay off the disabled list.

2010-12-19T09:39:00.001-05:00

Last year, the bullpen was a joke. This year, the jokes are a little bit different.

Who knew they were making the bullpen bigger because they were planning on having 14 guys out there?

This isn't bullpen by committee, it's bullpen by the whole U.S. House of Representatives.

Bobby Jenks looks like the second coming of David Wells and Rich Garces. Together. In one uniform.

Well, that last one may be a joke that ends up on the team, but who knew that Theo's bullpen plan included signing everybody he could think of? Where's Dick Drago? Is Joe Hesketh coming through that door?

But seriously, folks, on paper, this bullpen looks like it can actually get some people out.

Matt Albers, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller and Lenny DiNardo, not to mention returnees Scott Atchison and Felix Dubront, have shown some ability in the past, and we can only hope that they can again. Dubront could end up as a starter in Pawtucket, waiting for Dice-K's first injury of the year. And, of course, there's Tim Wakefield, whose job definition as he starts his final season may be "Mike Lowell." Wait around for four months until somebody gets hurt, then prove invaluable at the end. All we need is an inning or so a night from these guys before we move on to:

Dan Wheeler, an effective setup guy as there has been over the last three years for Tampa Bay, with WHIPs of 1.076, 0.867 and 0.995 and those numbers are pitching in the AL East. The Sox as a team hit .095 against him last year.

Bobby Jenks, a closer whose similarity scores include Brian Wilson and Brad Lidge, but who is also very similar to Jonathan Papelbon as a World Series winner whose performance has declined yearly since winning the ring. His save totals have gone 41, 40, 30, 20 and 27 since then and his WHIP has gone from 0.892 to 1.376, just as Papelbon's has gone from 0.771 to 1.269.

After Jenks, we have the most effective pitcher of the whole bunch last season, Daniel Bard, whose upside is as high as his pitch speed numbers. Bard established himself as one of the top relievers in the game and still looks like the closer-in-waiting. It just depends how long he has to wait. He'll be 26 this year, prime age for a closer. Jenks had his highest save total when he was 26, and Papelbon had his at age 27.

And then there is the aforementioned Papelbon, who has made it known for years that he intends to set the bar for closer contracts, and is out of here as soon as he can sign with the Yankees. The Sox screwed with his delivery in 2009, it cost him control of his splitter and his meltdown against the Angels and his seven blown saves last year have moved the bar a bit lower. He will probably rise to the challenge and rebound in his walk year. Meanwhile, could the Sox, with Bard and Jenks, trade Pap before the season ends and risk facing him in the postseason?

It looks like the offseason work is done, and it is said there is safety in numbers. Well, the Sox bullpen has the numbers. It's just a question of safety turning into saves.

What Happened?

2010-12-12T12:35:00.001-05:00

Suddenly, the Red Sox have become the big spenders and the Yankees are the team that has to add extra years and extra dollars just to compete with us. The dollars are no problem for them, but they will have to keep Cliff Lee around until he's 41 just to get his name on a contract. A lot of things have come together this off season to change the Red Sox approach to free agency, including:

Third place

After losing in the Mark Teixeira frenzy two years ago, the Red Sox took a different approach to free agency. John Lackey notwithstanding, they were looking for role players and guys they could sign at below market value. This approach brought Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and third place. Now, you can make the case that the team would have made the playoffs without all the injuries, but given the level of competition in the division, that was not assured.

Fan interest

NESN ratings are half of what they were in 2007 and it's only through creative ticket accounting methods that their beloved sellout streak is intact. That means lower ad revenues for the cash-cow cable channel and a lessened secondary ticket market for the "official ticket scalper of the Boston Red Sox," Ace Ticket. Spending $250 million on new players salaries is an investment that will pay off in higher ratings, scarcer tickets and enough new income from these ancillary sources to cover the new expenditures. And remember that in the past they have always used free agent signing as an excuse to jack up ticket prices.

The marketplace

The free-agent market itself is changing. Whereas once the Red Sox and Yankees only had to worry about each other, now teams like the Rangers and Nationals are getting involved. Look at the AL Central, where the smaller-market Twins finish first year after year because nobody in that division has spent any money. Now the larger market teams like the Tigers and White Sox are in the market, and Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn stand in the Twins' path to the playoffs. Plus, every time Scott Boras adds another client, the market goes up.

Liverpool

I think Sox ownership did not anticipate the backlash and negative buzz that the soccer team has created. It was going to be so much fun. We would all buy official memberships in "Liverpool Nation." NESN would show games. Their players would do those awkward stand-up-in-the-booth-and-ignore-the-game interviews with Don and Jerry. Instead, what they got was the feeling that the Red Sox were being ignored and all the money was being funneled to the soccer team purchase. So, part of the spending spree was a team backlash to the fan backlash. They had to spend money here to justify buying the team there.

There is still more work to do. The bullpen needs to be rebuilt (not the actual bullpen – work is already underway on that), and they are still trying to sign former Dodger catcher Russell Martin for some reason. But when the Yankees do introduce Cliff Lee and his 12-7 record last year to the world, we'll know that, at least for one year, we have matched them step for step.

The Trading Post

2010-12-06T21:21:00.001-05:00

This is a post about trades. As the Sox and Padres today announced the trade that would send Adrian Gonzalez to Boston for three prime prospects, it looks like a trade that benefits both teams. But, the funny thing about trades is that you never know how they will end up. A trade that looks great at the time may turn out to be a real bust for one team or the other.

The first trade I remember was in 1959 or 1960, when the Sox swapped veteran catcher Sammy White for veteran catcher Russ Nixon. At that time trades were the only way that players moved from one team to another. It was a trade of equally boring players and White became better known as the owner of Sammy White's Brighton Bowl as the years went by. Nixon had a longer career in baseball and ended up managing for a while.

Then there was Don Schwall, who is the definition of flash-in-the-pan. The AL rookie of the year in 1961, a year later, the righthander couldn't get the ball over the plate (1.651 WHIP) and was sent to Pittsburgh as part of the deal to get Dick Stuart and Jack Lamabe. The always-colorful Stuart had the perfect Fenway swing and put up 42 home runs and 118 RBIs in his first year in Boston. Of course, he also committed somewhere around 118 errors. This trade was best remembered as a trade of great nicknames, though. Stuart was "Dr. Strangeglove" and Lamabe was "Ol' Tomato Face" because, apparently, his face got very red when he pitched.

A few years later, the Sox had a lefthanded reliever by the name of Sparky Lyle. This was during the time that the Sox and Yankee managements talked to each other, and Lyle was sent to the Yankees for Danny Cater, who the Sox felt they needed because he hit .301 two seasons before the trade. From the Yankees' point of view, this was Babe Ruth for cash (not Norm Cash) all over again. Lyle became the Yankees' closer and won the 1997 AL Cy Young award. Cater hit .262 in three years with Boston.

Some players are traded in only to be traded back out. In 1978, the Sox acquired Dennis Eckersley for veteran Rick Wise, plus minor-leaguers Ted Cox, Bo Diaz and Mike Paxotn. Eck won 20 games that year for the should-have-been pennant winners. But by 1984, the Sox were done with him and sent him to the Cubs for Bill Buckner. The rest is history. Eck went to the Hall of Fame. Buckner is still trying to get the handle on that ground ball.

But it is the veteran-for-prospects deals that are the most interesting, and the Red Sox have had some interesting ones there.

The one we all remember is Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson in 1990. Sox GM Lou Gorman felt he needed one more reliever, so sent AA first baseman Bagwell to Houston. Anderson pitched a few games in the regular season, but couldn't get the ball over the plate in the playoff series against Oakland. He left after the year as a free agent. That Bagwell guy anchored the Astros for 15 seasons and should end up in Cooperstown.

A few years before that, however, Gorman put together another one of those deals. The Sox got Mike Boddciker from Baltimore, giving up the young Curt Schilling and Brady Anderson to get Boddiker, and both of them turned out OK. But without Boddicker, the Sox do not win the AL East in 1996 and 1998. Anderson went from 16 home runs in 1995 to 50 in 1996, an early example of PEDs at work.

Then there was the trade that saw the Sox on the receiving end of the swap, foisting Heathcliffe Slocomb, who had gone from 31 saves in 1996 to 17 in 1998 with a WHIP of 1.975, on the Mariners for two prospects: Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek. That could be the most lopsided deal in Red Sox history.

Getting back to Adrian Gonzales, this trade looks like a close relative of the Beckett/Lowell trade back in 2006 when the Sox took advantage of another team holding a player sale, the Florida Marlins. It was on of those deals that benefit both teams. True, the Sox sent their top prospect, Hanley Ramirez (along with Anibal Sanchez, who threw a no-hitter for the Marlins, and two others) away, and Ramirez became a star shortstop, but without Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (who was coming off a down year and the Sox took as a salary dump) the 2007 World Championship does not happen.

Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes may turn out to all be great players. They were all drafted early and were moving up in the organization. But, just like in the Ramirez trade (Hanley, not Manny), we may be looking back at this in a few years and say that without that trade, we don't win the 2011 (or some other year) World Series. And that would make it a good deal.

Playing Bridge

2010-11-26T10:29:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox player development department (the term that has replaced farm system in the baseball lexicon – why keep a simple three-syllable name when a nine syllable one will do?) was remarkably efficient in the 2004-2008 era, producing Youkilis, Pedroia, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Lester and Buchholz and two World Series wins.

Since then, the pickings have been a little slim. Daniel Bard has been spectacular at times, Jed Lowrie could have his medical problems behind him, and Ryan Kalish may turn out to be the everyday player the team thinks he will be, but Theo Epstein's bridge is still open. Because, for all their success, the Red Sox player development folks have some long-standing issues.

The first is that it has been a real long time since the team developed a middle-of the lineup power hitter. The power guys – Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz – have come our way as free agents. Kevin Youkilis hit fourth for most of last season, but an average of 23 home runs a season is not really a cleanup hitter's stat. The last power hitter the team developed was Mo Vaughn.

The last catcher that came through the system was Rich Gedman. Jason Varitek fell into their laps in a trade, and since his arrival the team hasn't needed to produce a catcher. Now that the captain is 39 years old, and may not even play here in 2011, they need a catcher. But for prospects like Luis Exposito and Ryan Lavarnway, the future is at least two years away.

What about a third baseman? Wade Boggs left town in 1992, and the development folks have produced a bunch of warm bodies there (Scott Cooper, Tim Naehring) but not a really good hitter/fielder combination.

And then there is the perennial shortstop problem. When Nomar was traded, they had the future shortstop star in Hanley Ramirez, but traded him to get Lowell and Beckett (a good deal, overall), but there was no other shortstop in the wings, and there have been a lot of errors (Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo) before Marco Scutaro plugged the gap adequately in 2010, as a bridge to Jose Iglesias.

Which brings us to this offseason, when the Red Sox are letting some great players walk away from the team's problem positions without adequate replacements. Victor Martinez is already gone, and is Theo really comfortable with Jared Saltalamacchia as the everyday catcher? Are you comfortable with that arrangement? Adrian Beltre's exit visa was punched the day he got here, really. But that leaves a hole at third base (or first base, depending where they play Youkilis). And what about a number three and number five hitter?

The team has shown in the past (and showed last week with Martinez) that it will not go beyond what it perceives as a player's value in terms of length of contract or dollars, even if it means losing that player. That was their stance two years ago with Mark Teixeira, whose signing with New York switched the balance of power in the AL East, and that was their stance with Martinez, who could have been kept around for $2 million more a year. Will that be their stance with Jayson Werth and/or Carl Crawford? You can take that stance if you have the players in the pipeline (something the Minnesota Twins always have), but if the guys aren't there to plug the holes, be ready for fans to start jumping off Theo's bridge.

A lot of bull(pen)

2010-11-21T19:52:00.002-05:00

The Sox are apparently going ahead with the reconstruction of the bullpens, moving the fences in 10 feet in right field. Who knew that the reason the bullpen sucked last year was because the players were uncomfortable? Since this basic change in the design of the ballpark has been an unpopular move, they are keeping it quiet and not posting video of Larry Lucchino pointing at it every week or so. And what do you want to bet that they find a way to throw some seats in between the bullpens, call them the bullpen seats and charge a hundred bucks to sit there? Anyway, on the MLB website, you can find spray charts that show where every player's hits went during the season. Looking at them, it's possible to determine how many more home runs each Sox player would have had last year if the fence was at 370 feet instead of 380 feet. David Ortiz would have had six more home runs, J.D. Drew four, Jed Lowrie two and Kevin Youkilis, even as a right-handed hitter, would have had five homers to right. But the big winner could be Jacoby Ellsbury. I took 2009 as the benchmark, for obvious reasons, and found that Ellsbury clearly had warning track power in 2009. Ten fly balls he hit to right would have ended up in the new bullpen, more than doubling his home run total from nine to 19! At that rate, he statistically becomes better than Carl Crawford, who has only hit three home runs at Fenway in his career.

On another note:

For years, the Red Sox have been burned in free agency in a bunch of different ways. They've been burned by the Yankees inserting themselves in the process at the last minute, costing them Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira. They've been burned by handing out huge contracts to players like Julio Lugo and Edgar Renteria who clearly could not play here for whatever reason. And, then they've been burned by handing out huge contracts to players like Daisuke Matsuzaka, J.D. Drew and John Lackey, guys who come here and do exactly what their past performance says they are going to do, and are disappointments because they are not suddenly better than that. In the stock market, past results are not indications of future performance. In baseball, they are.

The Sox have also been wary of handing out long-term contracts, particularly to pitchers. This worked out well in the Pedro Martinez free agency, as the pitcher left his legendary years in Boston and after one good year with the Mets spent much of the rest of the four-year deal injured in one way or another. On the other hand, Derek Lowe just continues to be a workhorse, averaging 34 starts a year since he left Boston.

But really, are there that many free agents who can really move a team to a whole new level? There are some that can, like CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Cliff Lee. And the team that can throw the most money out there gets them.

Meanwhile, the other 29 teams play by different rules. You can believe the Scott Boras hype, smoke, mirrors and talk of mystery teams, end up bidding against yourself like the Sox did for Drew, and overpaying. Or you can draw a line and decide you won't cross it. That seems to be Theo Epstein's new philosophy. He'd like to sign Jason Werth (who looks just like Zonker from Doonesbury) or Carl Crawford given the opportunity, but only at his price and at his length of contract. Either it works out or it doesn't.

How does that philosophy impact the team? It effectively takes them out of the free agent frenzy and gives them an excuse for not signing free agents: "Hey, we tried, but they chose to go somewhere else."

And what about the part we all care about – the team on the field? So what if we've replaced Victor Martinez with Jared Saltalamacchia and Adiran Beltre with Jed Lowrie? Doesn't really matter to management. At the end of the day, they've fudged the numbers and the consecutive sellout streak is intact, and that's what really counts.

So, let's see how this plays out. If they get Worth or Crawford to come in at the team's price, so much the better. If not, it's probably third place again. Bur fear not, before long, third place gets them into the playoffs.

Bye, Bye NY

2010-10-23T10:12:00.002-04:00

So what if the Yankees got further this season than the Sox did, getting into the playoffs as the wild card (or the Wild Card as MLB would like). It's still OK to gloat a little bit.

It seemed like a fitting ending to see A-Rod, the former Ranger stand there with the bat on his shoulder watching strike three go by, thrown by Neftali Feliz, who was in Texas because he was traded there from Atlanta for, of all people, Mark Teixeira.

And I love the quotes out of the suddenly-not-so-arrogant team on a night that the young Rangers were not intimidated by the payroll, the uniform, the superstars or the history. They were led by shortstop Elvis Andrus, who was in Texas because he was traded there from Atlanta for, of all people, Mark Teixeira.

“They manhandled us,” said general manager Brian Cashman. “They beat us,” Girardi said. “They out-hit us, they out-pitched us, out-played us. And they beat us. It all stinks. It’s no fun to be in this position. It’s no fun sitting here after a loss. We take this extremely serious. It stinks."

They do take it "serious" in New York. And the way they do that is to go on another spending spree in the off-season. Yes, we can expect any combination of Cliff Lee, Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, David DeJesus, Brian Shouse, Jason Fraser and even David Ortiz totaling $140-$150 million dollars "wearing pinstripes" next year. And that doesn't even count their own aging free agents, who all have to come back because they are "True Yankees." God, they love their clichés there.

While Mariano Rivera seems to go on and on, and Andy Pettitte goes through the whole "will-I, won't-I, it's all about me" act that his buddy Roger Clemens perfected through the years, the Yankees will end up giving $20 million or more a year to Derek Jeter as a reward for past performance. As Joel Sherman noted in the New York Post, "The shortstop looked old. He was 36. He couldn’t get to the ball in the hole much any longer. He managed to hit just a meaningless .250 in the ALCS with no RBIs."

The reality of it is that for a few years now, Jeter never really could get to the ball in the hole. Most of those hot-doggy jump throws were getting to first base late, and the 2004 dive into the stands behind third base was a one-time occurrence.

But he will be back for as long as he wants, because he can still poke those two-strike hits down the right field line enough times to make it worth the money.

And then there's A-Rod, who is under contract until the year 2525 or something like that, reverting to his old playoff persona (.190, 0 HR, 2 RBI) and proving once again that it takes heart and guts to make it in the playoffs.

Yes, the Yankees will probably buy their way to dominance again in 2011, just like they did after missing the playoffs in 2001. But, at least we have the meltdown in Texas to remember them by. And in the end, Joe Girardi will still be wearing number 28 next season.

2010 Report Card

2010-10-03T20:00:00.002-04:00

Coming out of Spring Training, it was all about pitching and defense; remember run prevention? That plan started to go to hell four games into the season when Jacoby Ellsbury went down. The Red Sox soldiered on without him and were a half a game out of first place on July 2 when the injuries started to add up.

At that point their 1,2,3 and 4 hitters were all on the DL. By season's end, the team had lost four opening-day starters for the season (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis and Cameron), a fifth (Victor Martinez) missed a big chunk of time, his replacement (Jason Varitek) broke his foot, his replacement (Jarrod Saltalamacchia)had an infected leg and a torn thumb ligament and another (Marco Scutaro) played most of the season with shoulder problems.

In the end, it looks like that opening day lineup could have contended. They finished 7 games out of first. What if Papelbon had only blown four saves? Then they are only 3 back. Having Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Cameron and a healthy Martinez all season probably would have brought them the 3 more wins they would need to make the playoffs.

But, that was not to be and, for the first time since 2006 (another injury-filled year), it's wait till next year.

But before we turn the page and start counting the days until the truck leaves, here are this season's grades:

The supposed starting lineup (which was only together for four games)

Kevin Youkilis – His numbers when he went down (19/62/.307) suggest he was on his way to another typical Youuuuk year, which would qualify as an A.

Dustin Pedroia – Was on one of his rolls when the laser show was turned off. A .288 average may have gone above .300, but let's call it a B.

Marco Scutaro – Came here expecting to hit ninth, ended up leading off all year. Played hurt, but an almost exact match to last season statistically. Not as good defensively as expected, but earns a B.

Adrian Beltre – Overall the best player on the team. Nice that we had a chance to watch him up close before he goes back to the west coast. Showed amazing reflexes and swings at anything, which we don't get to see too much here. A.

Jacoby Ellsbury – DL with broken ribs, game with four steals, DL with broken ribs. Incomplete. (Josh Hamilton broke some ribs on September 4 and is playing again.)

Mike Cameron – An average ballplayer throughout his career, he gets credit for trying to play through the injury, but he is what he is. C.

JD Drew – Could have stepped up when most of the team went down, but it's just not in his JDNA. Significantly lower numbers than his career averages earns him a D.

Victor Martinez – A professional all the way. Does his job and does it well, except for throwing out base runners, but he's supposed to be working on that. Should be re-signed so he can spend the next few years here earning his B.

David Ortiz – Everybody wrote him off (especially me) in April, but he said he'd improve and he did. 30 +/- home runs and 100 +/- RBI is pretty much the standard in the post-steroid era (except for Juan Bautista, who shows all the classic signs of taking something), and Ortiz came back to meet the gold standard and get an A for the year.

The cavalry – these guys came to the rescue all year.

Bill Hall, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava – they came out of nowhere to play significant roles in the 2010 Sox. Each one played above and beyond expectations, each one was a hero at some point, and each one kept the team in the playoff race for as long as they could. Most likely Hall, McDonald and Nava will be gone next season, but just having them here was the feel-good part of a dismal year. The group earns a collective B.

The starting pitching

Clay Buchholz – Nothing to complain about here. 17 wins, 2^nd best ERA in the league. It's fun to watch a player emerge, and that's what happened this year and what has earned him an A.

Jon Lester – One of the few pitchers you could depend on to give a consistently good performance, he pitched into the 7^th inning in 25 of his 32 starts. Lester's 19 wins and 225 Ks speak for themselves. A.

Josh Beckett – Big contract, little results, more injuries. Looks like 2007 was the exception rather than the rule. Never won more than two games in a row. A $12 million pitcher with six wins only deserves a D.

John Lackey – Big contract, little results. I don't know what Theo was expecting from Lackey, but his average record is 15-11. He ended 14-11. By that stat, 2010 was an average year for him and average is a C.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 2008 was a fluke. Take that out and Dice-K is about a .500 pitcher (28-24) who still looks uncomfortable, sill nibbles, still is boring to watch (can you rub that ball a few more times?). But $10 mil for 9 wins is still a much better wins for dollars ratio than Beckett's. He's been an average pitcher, and average is a C.

The bomb squad (also known as the bullpen)

Jonathan Papelbon – Runs, hits and ERA are all more than doubled from last year. Doesn't seem to control his secondary pitches any more and people are sitting on his fastball. A well-earned D.

Daniel Bard – The setup guy was a lot more effective than the closer, and there were a lot of people calling for Bard to be the closer. Posted an ERA just under 2, but gave up 6 homeruns and walked 30 in 74 innings. All in all, pretty impressive, but there is room for improvement. Bard gets a B to give him something to shoot for.

Hideki Okajima – The All-Star in 2007 has gotten progressively worse since then to the point where he was totally unreliable in 2010. Now a free agent, it's time for him to move on and perhaps join a team with a pitching coach who can straighten him out.

Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez (remember them?), Scott Atchison, Dustin Richardson, etc., etc., etc. – Completely forgettable bunch who should all be replaced.

The old guard

Mike Lowell – A pro, a class act and a champion. Thanks, Mikey. A+ as a lifetime achievement award.

Tim Wakefield – Back again to do whatever was required, but the knuckleball doesn't seem to knuckle like it once did, and since the All-Star break in 2009 he's 4-14. Under contract for one more season, but, sad to say, he's one of those guys who has hung on too long. C for effort.

Jason Varitek – Seemed to adapt well to his new, reduced role but, just like everybody else, ended up on the DL for most of the second half. Really should retire, but, sad to say…(see above). C for effort.

The new guard

Jed Lowrie – Finally healthy, for the last six weeks Lowrie looked like the guy we thought we were getting. Hit .287 with 9 home runs and played adequate defense. Could he be the third baseman next season with Beltre gone?

Ryan Kalish – I still don't think he's going to be anything more than an average, Mike Cameron type, but he did show that he has the skills to play at the major-league level. Would be a good fourth outfielder, but it would be a mistake to trade Ellsbury and give Kalish the outfield job.

Felix Dubront – Rushed to the big leagues out of necessity, was no worse than anybody else in the bullpen and actually had become the situational lefty when he (of course) got hurt and was shut down.

Yamaico Navarro – In over his head at the plate, he showed some good defense. Needs to go back to the minors to learn to hit breaking balls, but could be back or be valuable as trade bait.

Lars Anderson – Finally made it to the majors and, unfortunately, showed that he will probably not ever reach the potential that made him the team's #1 prospect just two years ago.

The manager and coaches

Just for keeping this group together with duct tape and in the race into September, Tito gets an A. As for John Farrell, the bullpen meltdown, the terrible seasons for three starters, the inability to straighten out a pitcher when something goes wrong earns him an F. Third base coach Tim Bogar needs to learn to use the stop sign next year to avoid another D. As for the other coaches, does anybody care what the bullpen coach does?

The medical staff

When a player went down they never came back. More quacks here than on a Duck Tour. Should all be replaced. F.

The front office

Pitching and defense, huh? Well, the pitching was below average and the defense was near the bottom of the league. So much for that. Run prevention was a joke and a disaster from the start. The offseason moves of bringing in Adrian Beltre and Bill Hall worked out well. Theo overrated John Lackey and overpaid to get him and never could get the bullpen in shape, but realized that, with all the injuries, this team was not going to get to the postseason and chose wisely not to give up prospects for a reliever like Scott Downs. Let's see how aggressive they are this offseason, but ownership seems to have them on a much stricter budget than in years past. C.

Good luck to the Twins, Rangers and Rays in the American League Playoffs!!!

Big decision on Big Papi

2010-09-18T16:27:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox have some choices to make in the off season, not the least of which is what to do about David Ortiz and his 12 million dollar option. When he signed his current contract after the 2006 season, Big Papi was coming off a 54-home run, 137-RBI season, and was presented with some sort of plaque every year by management - Greatest Hitter Except for Ted Williams That Ever Lived, Best Clutch Hitter, Biggest Smile, stuff like that.

Now, of course, we know that part of that production was drug-fueled. Most of the superstars of that era, McGwire, Sosa, Palmiero, are out of the game now. But it's interesting to see what has happened to those who are still playing, Ortiz included.

Let's start with one Alex Emmanuel Rodriguez. A-Rod hit 52 home runs in 2001, 57 in 2002 and 47 in 2003 for Texas, all of which got him traded to the Yankees. His first four years in New York he averaged 43 home runs a year. Since showing up on the top-secret Mitchell list, 30 a year. He's at 25 as I write this with two weeks left in the season.

Now, how about A-Rod's former teammate, Jason Giambi, who apologized for something after it was discovered he was a user. In 2009, playing 100 games, he hit 13 home runs. So far this season, in 163 at bats for Colorado he has six, which would project out to 16 for 500 at bats.

Miguel Tejada? He hit 26+ home runs a year from 2000 to 2005. He's hit a total of 59 over the last four years.

Ortiz's decline has been well documented around here, averaging 47 home runs and 141 RBIs during the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons. The last three seasons, he's been around 30 homers and 95 RBIs.

Now, admittedly, all four of those guys are getting older, and power numbers do decline with age. It happens to everyone, even guys who don't need last names like Ted, Willie, Hank, Harmon and Reggie. But what we are seeing here is the new normal. In the American League, outside of Juan Bautista (where did he come from and what is he taking?), the next nine all have home run totals somewhere between 27 and 37. Ortiz is fifth in the league with. 30. In the RBI race, the leader, Miguel Cabrera, has 118 with 15 games to play. The National League leader in home runs and RBIs is Albert Pujols with 39 and 107. The days of the 50+ home run hitters and 140 RIB guys are gone.

So, getting back to the original question, what do the Sox do with Ortiz? His batting average is down, but he is drawing more walks, he'll finish in the top 10 in home runs and the top 20 in RBIs and his OPS is 8^th in the league at .893.

In the post-steroid era, those sound like middle of the order numbers, not middle of the pack numbers. So, maybe the Sox try for a two-year $8 million deal like they did with Jason Varitek. Or, they just pick up the option, keep everybody happy and know that one of their issues for next season has been solved. I never would have said this in April or May, but the option seems to be the best option.

2010-09-11T11:05:00.000-04:00

Manny being Manny: Unfortunately for the White Sox, the Manny they are getting so far is the I-want-out-of-Boston Manny, which is surprising. Manny's history when he joins a new team (Cleveland to Boston, Boston to Los Angeles of Los Angeles) is that he starts out hot. In nine games, he is 7 for 27 (.259) with no home runs and no RBIs.

The other Manny being Manny: Rockies fans got the whole Manny Delcarmen experience in his first three games there. In his first appearance, he went home run/out/single/single/single and was pulled. Two days later, he pitched a perfect inning. In his third game, he was single/double play/walk/out. You never know what you are going to get with MDC. Good luck to him and good luck Rockies. Hope it works out for a good guy.

John Farrell being John Farrell: In Saturday's Herald, the Sox pitching coach says wonderful things about all his starters, including giving Josh Beckett an "incomplete." But let's be real. Other than Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard, is there any pitcher on the team who has played to his potential or even showed any consistency this year? It seems like every one of them has shown flashes of greatness, followed by flashes of Calvin Schiraldi. I blame Farrell. How many times have you seen a pitcher for another team get into trouble, the pitching coach comes out for a talk and the pitcher gets out of it? Happens with the Rays all the time. With our pitchers, when Farrell comes out for a chat, the pitcher usually melts down and is out of the game. Why can't Farrell make in-game adjustments the way other pitching coaches can? Isn't it the job of the pitching coach to make pitchers better, not worse? Let's hope that if Farrell is offered a managerial job this off-season, he takes it.

Ryan Kalish being Fred Lynn: Well, not exactly. When Lynn got a late season call up in 1974, he hit .419 and showed why he would become the Rookie –of the Year and MVP the next season. Kalish does lead the team in grand slams and his three stolen bases tie him for fourth. And he's an outstanding outfielder with a good arm. But, after seeing him play in Portland, Pawtucket and Boston, I'm still not convinced that the guy can be a consistent big-league hitter. He kind of reminds me of JD Drew. Do we really want another JD Drew?

So, when did the Sox really fall out of contention? On July 2, they were a half game out of first, but that was the day that Jason Varitek went down, never to return. From that point on, the team has had at least four opening-day starters out of the lineup every day. It just became too much. Every time a big situation has come along that could be a game changer, it seems like Eric Patterson has been the hitter.

It was not a great season for the high-minor league teams as the revolving door rosters also hurt them every time someone in Boston broke another bone. Pawtucket was 66-78 while Portland was 70-71. The one bright spot was Portland first-baseman Anthony Rizzo, who hit .263 with 20 home runs.

The Atlanta Braves have already announced their spring training schedule and the Sox play March 16 at Disney World. The wait 'til next year has already begun.

Our Time has Come and Gone

2010-08-22T17:19:00.002-04:00

This was supposed to be our time. True, we didn't reel in any big fish at the trade deadline (though Kerry Wood would have been nice) the reasoning went. But emptying out the disabled list onto the active roster would have the same effect – adding players that would lead the stretch drive to the playoffs. A healthy Josh Beckett, a healthy Dustin Pedroia, a healthy Mike Cameron, a healthy Jacoby Ellsbury, a healthy Manny Delcarmen. They'd all be back and be fresh, and how hard is it to overcome a five-game lead with two months to play?

Harder than you think.

First of all, a healthy Beckett is pitching no better than a healthy Casey Fossum did when we got him at the 2003 trade deadline, which is to say not very well. Delcarmen has been the same, which is to say walking the bases loaded. Add to that the fact that Jon Lester has been 4-5 in July and August and John Lackey gives up five runs every time he pitches, and it's obvious that the pitching portion of pitching and defense has not been holding up its end. The starters are 15-15 for July and August, and that includes Clay Buchholz's 4-1.

Which leads us to ask the question that nobody asks: Is John Farrell the great pitching coach that everybody says he is? Since Farrell arrived here in 2007, the team ERA has gone from 1^st to 5^th to 7^th this season. And when something goes wrong with a pitcher, Farrell seems unable to bring the pitcher back on track. It's happening with Beckett , Okajima and Delcarmen this year. Also, what role has Farrell played in the disintegration of Jonathan Papelbon? The once formidable closer had his delivery changed last year, and hasn't been quite as effective since, to the point where the big entrance and the long stare are becoming a joke.

Then there is the injury factor. Pedroia played three games and went back on the DL. Cameron played here and there and went back on the DL. Ellsbury played a few times in May and went back on the DL, only to break more ribs and land on the DL for the third time. Youk is gone for the season, Varitek seems to have made no progress, and every catcher they bring up has also ended up disabled (four catchers on the disabled list?). It just goes on and on. If you consider the opening day lineup as the "regular" lineup, it is appalling to think that at least two players from that lineup have been on the DL every day since the 13^th game of the season.

Which leads us to another question that nobody asks: "Should the medical staff be gone?" In 2005, Dr. Bill Morgan, who became famous for Curt Schilling's ankle operation, was let go and replaced by Dr. Thomas Gill. Since then, it seems like any player needing medical assistance has had to go to the Beth Israel Deaconess first aid station and popcorn stand behind section 12 at Fenway Park, then directly to the DL. And Terry Francona's stock answer when asked about injuries is, "It's taking longer than we expected."

Let's face it, it's time to see if players like Ryan Kalish, Felix Doubront and Jarrod Saltalamaccia (once HE comes of the disabled list) can make it in the big leagues. Back in 1974, with the season out the window, the team brought up a couple of rookies named Rice and Lynn. That worked out pretty well the next season. The end of this season will be interesting only because it may be a look into the future, at a season when the team on the disabled list is better than the team on the active roster.

Unsung Heroes

2010-08-10T06:28:00.001-04:00

Unsung heroes have highlighted this Red Sox season. As regular after regular has gone down with one broken bone or another, others have stepped up to fill the void and at least keep the team above the bird portion of the division, occupied by Blue Jays and Orioles.

Guys like Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava came to the organization mainly as roster fillers, and minor leaguer roster fillers at that. While prospects like Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson and Ryan Kalish would get all the attention at Pawtucket as they worked their way to the majors, McDonald and Nava would be the supporting cast, drawing a paycheck to be the other guys. And who expected Bill Hall to play in over 70% of the team's games?

While they have helped to make this edition Red Sox just good enough to dream of making the playoffs, these unsung heroes reminded me of another band of unsung heroes that combined to actually win the AL pennant – the 1967 Impossible Dream Red Sox.

Sure, that team had a lot of good young players who all blossomed at the same time: the 27-year old Yaz, Reggie Smith, George Scott, Rico Petrocelli. All would establish themselves as long-time, successful big leaguers. But there was a whole group of journeymen who also contributed to that season, and in a big way. For example:

Jerry Adair – a lifetime .251 hitter, Adair came to the Sox in June and hit .291 the rest of the way, appearing in 89 games at three different positions. His big moment came in an August 20 doubleheader against the California Angels. Trailing 8-1 after 3 ½ innings, the Sox scored 8 runs in the middle three innings to tie it, and completed the comeback with one in the 8^th. Adair was 2 for 4 and that one in the 8^th was an Adair home run.

Norm Siebern – one of the few players with postseason experience (with the Yankees in 1956 and 1958), Siebern defined journeyman, having played for the Yankeees, Athletics, Orioles, Angels and Giants before coming to Boston. He only hit .205, but Siebern gave manager Dick Williams a chance to rest some of the regulars down the stretch.

Dan Osinski – the former Athletic, Angel and Brave actually arrived by trade in 1966 when he was 4-3, but in 1967 Osinski was one of the long guys out of the bullpen, compiling a 2.54 ERA. And with the Sox a little thin in the starting pitching area (except for Jim Lonborg) and featuring such notables as Bucky Brandon, Dennis Bennett and Dave Morehead, there was a real need for a long reliever.

And the ultimate unsung hero,

Jose Tartabull – he played 115 games (most of his career) at all three outfield positions, and provided the second most memorable play of that season (behind Yaz's catch momentarily saving Billy Rohr's no-hit game). In Chicago on August 27, the Red Sox led 4-3 in the bottom of the ninth. But Ken Berry was at third with one out and Duane Josephson hit a fly ball to the weak-armed Tartabull in right. Tartabull's catch and perfect throw home completed the double play and won it for the Sox.

When a team needs help, it's the unsung heroes who make memorable contributions to memorable seasons. The Sox likely will not make it to the playoffs this season, but it will be memorable nevertheless because of players like Nava, McDonald and Hall, who have followed in the footsteps of Adair, Siebern, Osinski and Tartabull to keep the team afloat when they could have sunk many games ago.

The Road to Nowhere

2010-07-26T17:47:00.001-04:00

Who knew that the road to nowhere ran through Oakland, Seattle and, likely, Anaheim as well? The traveling band of screw-ups known as the Red Sox have had so many screw-ups, so many missed opportunities and so many games lost that they should have won that you have to think the season is over. Many of the players seem to think so. How else do you explain the lackadaisical stab Eric Patterson took at an easy fly ball with a perfect game on the line? How else do you explain Hideki Okajima's botch-up of a bunt that should have gotten them an out at third in the fateful eighth inning on Sunday. Instead, Okajima and his 5.81 ERA do nothing and the floodgates opened. Meanwhile, we fall four behind the Rays and, well, it doesn't matter how far behind the Yankees, who are in the midst of their annual July hot streak (13-5 in their last 18 games).

We can only hope that management doesn't decide to go on a buying binge with the deadline only a week away. What good would it do to pick up, say, Jason Werth or Leo Nunez at this point? The Sox could trade for Cy Young, put him in the bullpen, and there would still be too many holes to fill. And I don't get trading for Chris Ianetta. The team has had good-fielding, poor-hitting catchers by the dozens (Josh Bard, George Kottaras, now Kevin Cash again) and they don't value those types of players. They trade them or dump them. So why go out and get the same guy?

After losing out on Cliff Lee and griping about it (but they'll sign him in the offseason anyway so what's the big deal?), the Yankees also lost out on Dan Haren. MLB Network reported Friday night that a trade was imminent but Haren ended up with the Angels instead. This time the spin in New York is that the Yankees thought the price (prospects) was too high. It's a strange deal for the Angels, who sent Joe Saunders to Arizona. Seems like the teams traded the same player back and forth.

It's nice to see Andre Dawson make it to Cooperstown. Like Jim Rice last season, Dawson's numbers look better over time. 438 home runs without performance-enhancing drugs is a lot better than Sammy Sosa's 609 with drugs. Dawson is a class guy who spent two years playing for the Sox, batting .260 with 29 home runs on knees that had already failed him.

Haven't mentioned it here yet, but I had the chance to see a couple of games in Baltimore last month. I'd been told more than once that once you see a game there, Fenway Park will never feel the same. And it's true. Camden Yards is clean, the seats are wide, there is leg room, and when you sit down the right field line, your seat faces – get this – the infield! What a concept. And those are seats that the regular fans can afford, not just the corporate sponsors. The Orioles seem to have a hard core of about 12,000 fans who show up every night because they love baseball and the O's. 2,000 or so are there to see the ballpark, and the rest are there to get the promotion of the night (we got an Adam Jones Bobblehead) or to support the other team.

What If...?

2010-07-18T17:55:00.001-04:00

Let's play "What If…"

What if any other pitcher other than Tim Wakefield were 4-11 over the last year? Would the Red Sox keep him in the rotation?

What if the Red Sox start looking more at the bottom line and the luxury tax implications, as it looks like they are doing? Does that mean they stay out of the free agent market next winter while the Yankees sign Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford?

What if A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez were NOT in the Yankees' rotation? How far ahead would they be in the A.L. East?

What if the Red Sox, at 53-39, were in another division? In the AL Central they would be a game and a half in front of the White Sox. In the AL West, Boston and Texas would be tied for first. The Sox would be a game behind the Braves in the NL East, lead the Reds by 1 ½ in the NL Central, and would be a game up on the NL West leading Padres.

What if the A-Rod and Teixeira deals had gone in the Red Sox favor? Of course, a lot of other things may NOT have happened (getting Orlando Cabrera in '04, getting Mike Lowell in '07, getting Adrian Beltre in '08), so this is a real complex question.

What if Adrian Beltre had signed somewhere else? No broken ribs? Are the Sox better off with Beltre and without Jacoby Ellsbury and Jeremy Hermida?

What if the Sox were able to get injured players back from the DL in the time frame that the medical staff initially thought they would be back? Jacoby Ellsbury, Jeremy Hermida, Victor Martinez and Josh Beckett would all be playing at Fenway today.

The Yankees have Nick Johnson and three middle relievers on the DL. The Rays have middle reliever JP Howell on the DL. That's it.

Speaking of the disabled list, it looks like the Dodgers will place Manny Ramirez there with a "tight hamstring." Time for his annual July vacation followed by two weeks of rehab.

Keli McGregor, the president of the Colorado Rockies, died earlier this year. Where was his moment of silence at the All-Star game?

Amid all the accolades for George Steinbrenner, who in death has suddenly become the male equivalent of Mother Teresa: The fact is, there was nobody worse for baseball in the last 50 years than George Steinbrenner. He bullied the people who worked for him, bullied Major League Baseball into NOT being able to take a stand on a salary cap, and made competitive balance in baseball in terms of bidding for free agents and competing for talent impossible. Because of him, two-thirds of the teams in MLB go into the season with no chance of winning the World Series. For the remaining third, it takes a perfect season with no injuries, everybody on the team having a career year, and a lot of luck just to get to the playoffs. Let's face it, the Red Sox have, for most of the last 10 years, had the second-highest payroll in baseball. But the team has won only one AL east title, always finishing second to the Yankees, and once to the Rays, who had one of those perfect seasons in 2009. Things aren't going to change with his sons running the money machine, but maybe the other 29 owners can come out of the corner they have been cowering in, stand up, and say it's time for a salary cap.

At the Half

2010-07-06T06:33:00.000-04:00

It's hard to believe the baseball season is half over. It hasn’t been the most exciting year, with the Sox chugging along, playing good baseball, losing a player to the DL every other day or so, and making it to within half a game of first place. But the team that was supposed to be based on pitching and defense is 11^th in team ERA and fifth in team fielding percentage. Meanwhile, they are third in team batting average and second in home runs. Yes, the Sox are doing it with offense, not defense.

But the big issue is the injuries. Unlike 2006, when the massive number of injuries brought us inept journeymen like Kyle Snyder, Jason Johnson, Ken Huckaby and Dustan Mohr, this year we have better journeymen like Bill Hall and Darnell McDonald. But how long can this team hold it together with a different lineup every day?

With that said, here are some mid-season grades:

Ì = Players who are playing hurt, have been on the DL or are on the DL

1B – Kevin Youkilis (A): The one guy who deserves to make the all-star team doesn't. On track to have a career year in home runs, RBI and runs scored, and one of the few healthy players.

Ì2B – Dustin Pedroia (A): Finally was on a roll with the bat when he broke his foot. Now taking ground balls on his knees. That's dedication.

ÌSS – Marco Scutaro (B-): Has filled in nicely as the leadoff hitter, hovering around .275 most of the year. His defense is not as good as advertised, and certainly was helped by the carpet in Toronto.

(By the way, did you realize that there are only two artificial turf fields left and both of them are in our division, Tampa Bay and Toronto?)

3B – Adrian Beltre (B) He's turned it around after several mediocre seasons in Seattle. Probably will never be the slugger he was in the drug-fueled part of the decade, but has become a great slash hitter sort of like Wade Boggs. Would rate an A, but gets marked down for all the broken ribs.

ÌC – Victor Martinez (C): Kind of a harsh grade for an all-star, but the guy has not hit at his usual pace until just before he was hurt, and his throwing is just plain bad.

ÌLF – Jacoby Ellsbury (Incomplete): This is the way 2010 has gone. Broke his ribs on one side, came back, broke his ribs on the other side and hasn't been seen since.

ÌCF – Mike Cameron (C): Got hurt in the second game of the season and now can only play once a week or so. When he plays, he has been what he's always been: A good defensive center fielder who hits .250 and strikes out a lot.

RF – JD Drew (B): The guy known for getting hurt has been on the field more than any other outfielder this year, and is having a typical Drew year: not great, not bad.

DH – David Ortiz (A): After a miserable start, had a torrid May and cooled down in June, but still projects to 30+ home runs. Interesting stat: in the last 365 days has hit 37 home runs and has 117 RBI.

ÌC – Jason Varitek (B): Adapted well to the backup roll. Usual hitting stats, starting off over .300 and dropping daily. Maybe the time on the DL will rejuvenate him for the second half and he'll end up higher than .203.

ÌOF – Jeremy Hermida (Incomplete): Broke his ribs and disappeared.

OF – Darnell McDonald (B): A journeyman who has exceeded all expectations, playing all three outfield positions. Batting average is on the decline as he shows why he's been a career minor leaguer.

OF – Daniel Nava (Incomplete): Made a big splash with the first-pitch grand slam, but they're starting to throw him breaking stuff.

OF/IF – Bill Hall (C+): Has done everything asked of him in a workmanlike manner. Can't seem to get his average above .230.

SP – Jon Lester (A): In a short time he has done it all: won a clinching World Series game, pitched a no-hitter, developed into an ace, and now his first all-star selection.

ÌSP – Clay Buchholz (A): Sure glad we didn't trade him. Has done everything Lester has done except win a World Series game.

SP – John Lackey (B): Came here knowing he wouldn't be the #1 starter and has done everything asked of a #3 starter, going out there every fifth day, eating innings and winning 9 games so far in the process.

ÌSP – Josh Beckett (incomplete): Signed the big contract, won one game and disappeared. Find him and you'll probably also find Hermida and Ellsbury.

ÌSP – Daisuke Matsuzaka (C): Who knows???????

SP – Tim Wakefield (C): Seems like one bad inning does him in most starts. Wake has always given up runs and depended on run support, which he isn't getting.

CLOSER – Jonathan Papelbon (C): When they messed with his delivery last year, they messed with his effectiveness. Doesn't throw 97 any more, totally lost his splitter, is afraid to throw the slider. Has turned into Ugi Urbina (without the murder rap) right before our eyes.

SETUP – Daniel Bard (A): The most effective and least nerve-racking guy out of the bullpen. Can actually throw strikes and get people out.

ÌBULLPEN – The rest of them (F): Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima have regressed, Ramon Ramirez never was any good, Scott Atchison is a Triple-A pitcher in a major-league bullpen by default, Boof Bonser, Joe Nelson and Scott Schoeneweis came and went, and now we have the likes of Dustin Richardson and Robert Manuel.

MANAGER – Terry Francona (A+): His best managing job of his seven years here. Keeping the team in contention so far while waiting for the injured players to come back.

TRAINING/MEDICAL STAFF (F): How come they can't get all these injured players back on the field?

SECOND HALF PROGNOSIS: They start the second half with a brutal schedule and a minor league roster. Starting July 5 they play 16 of their next 20 on the road including a 10-game west coast trip. If they can get through that at, maybe 12-8, and get some players back in August, could get the wild card. If not, could end up behind Toronto in fourth place.

Welcome Back Manny, Now Go Away

2010-06-19T16:36:00.002-04:00

When we last saw Manny Ramirez at bat here he had just flied out to center against Justin Speier and the Angels. His left knee hurt. Or was it his right knee? Maybe it was both knees. Maybe his grandmother died again.

You knew it wasn't going to end well when he hired Scott Boras as his agent. Boras knew that, in order to get a fat commission out of Ramirez he was going to have to make sure that Manny was traded to someplace that would give him a new contract and not just pick up the two options the Sox could use to keep the slugger around.

So, Manny threw temper tantrums, fought with the traveling secretary and with Kevin Youkilis, came up with so many injuries he couldn't keep them straight, and, in a game on July 6, came up as a pinch hitter in a tie game with the Yankees and stood at the plate watching three Mariano Rivera cutters fly by him, never taking the bat off his shoulder, in a game the Sox ended up losing in 10. Kind of like the game ended on Friday night.

Going into the game, the media was kind of mixed about the kind of reaction Manny would get from the sellout crowd. It used to be that former players who came back with other teams were greeted with polite applause and the game went on. Who remembers how Jim Lonborg was welcomed back as a Brewer or Fred Lynn as an Angel? All that changed after the 2004 championship. Now the players who left were part of "THE 25."

Among the first to go and come back was Orlando Cabrera, who joined Los Angeles of Anaheim for the 2005 season and came back to hugs, cheers and multiple standing ovations. Pedro Martinez returned to Fenway in '05 with the Mets and, although he didn't pitch, he got his welcome with a tribute on the video board, ending with a shot of the grinning right-hander sitting on the dugout steps. Then came the ultimate honor of throwing out the first pitch on opening day this season. It helps when you go to the New York Mets and not the Yankees. Pedro left as a free agent and came back a hero. Eventually, Trot Nixon, Kevin Millar and even Nomar Garciaparra all came back to standing ovations.

Then there was Johnny Damon. It wasn't just that he left, it was how he left. The guy said he wanted to stay, and was even ready to sign a contract. Couldn't imagine playing anywhere else. Then, suddenly, he's shaving, cutting his hair and signing with the Yankees. Took the bucks and the extra year from the evil empire and showed up the next season ready for HIS standing O. Instead, he got a chorus of boos and looked pretty silly standing at the plate and holding his batting helmet high. Damon played hard every day – still does – but he was a Yankee now and wasn't going to get cheered any more than Jeter, A-Rod and Chuckles Matsui.

Manny was always different. He was difficult, he was a jerk sometimes, but he was our jerk. Everything he did was just Manny Being Manny, a phrase that covered up a multitude of anti-social behavior.

I think NESN expected, even wanted, a negative reaction because it would make a better story line, especially if Manny won the game with a home run or something like that. Jerry Remy seemed genuinely surprised at the positive vibe, and called it a "mixed bag." Maybe it sounded different in person, but it seemed like about 75% cheering coming out of my TV. Manny swung at the first pitch from Felix Dubront (nice effort from the kid, by the way, but he needs a second or third pitch) and lined out to center. He had a meaningless late-inning single and took that called third strike to end the game. You know he'll hit one out sometime this weekend. But by then he'll just be another guy in Dodger Blue out to break our hearts.

Random Thoughts

2010-06-13T19:44:00.000-04:00

We're less than 20 games from the halfway mark of the season. It's time to stop saying "It's early."

Nice of the Sox to commemorate "The Teammates" with a statue, but why did they have to move Ted and the Kid?

If you want to see future Major Leaguers in action, go to the Cape Cod League All-Star game. Of the 33 players in the box score from last year's game at Fenway, 21 were chosen in the MLB draft last week. Most of those not selected were sophomores last year. Many of those picked will never play in the Majors (if you're a 23^rd rounder the expectations are not high), but still, the Cape League has a pretty high percentage of players in "the show," and it's cool to be able to say you saw them before they became famous.

Among this year's draftees are Brian Fletcher, son of former Red Sox (and other teams) shortstop Scott Fletcher. One player not chosen (only a sophomore) was outfielder John Ruettiger, who is Rudy's nephew.

Off-topic: It's time for all the Celtics to show up in the same game. And it looks like Ray Allen was only allotted a certain number of three-pointers for the series. He used them all up in one game.

If Adrian Beltre doesn't start backing off or calling for the ball, the Sox are going to have to bring Lee Tinsley out of retirement to play left field. Or, better yet, Mike Greenwell, who spent his whole career colliding with various center fielders. They could run into each other.

John Lackey's season is like Dice-K's 2008 season. You look at the record and wonder how it happened. It doesn't seem like Lackey has pitched well enough to have seven wins.

What's with the Red Sox TV crew? First Jerry misses almost an entire year, then Heidi has a concussion, now Don has been on the DL with an unspecified ailment. Maybe a collision with Adrian Beltre in the clubhouse?

Speaking of Beltre again, I've sort of grown to like him. Too bad this one-year deal was just an audition year to land him a long-term contract next year after his poor last year. Scott Boras is his agent, so I don't expect he'll stay in Boston long-term.

Jamie Moyer got belted around on Friday night as the Sox put the game away in the first inning. He's had an amazing career for a pitcher who doesn't throw any faster than 88 miles an hour. The Globe noted that in his first season (1986 with the Cubs) Terry Francona and Dennis Eckersley were teammates, as were Greg Maddux and Ryne Sandberg. Even with three Hall-of Famers, the Cubs were 70-90.

Does Eck's tan look more orange this year?

Boof Bonser, Scott Atchison, Joe Nelson (now released). Can't the Sox find somebody to go into that final bullpen spot who can actually pitch?

When there's a threat of rain at Fenway, the Sox put out a press release. And whether it's a monsoon or a few sprinkles, it's ALWAYS THE SAME RELEASE!!! The Sox have a private weather service (which probably pays a fee to be the official weather service of the Red Sox). And since they employ the weather service, the service will say whatever the Sox want them to say, which is always "scattered showers in the area." Then the release goes on to say that the ballpark will open at the normal time, and the forecast is subject to change. Since the release basically gives the fans no guidelines about what will happen during the day, what's the point?

Some That Didn't Make It

2010-05-31T10:13:00.003-04:00

It's great to see Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz emerge as the star pitchers they were envisioned to be when they were making their way through the Sox minor-league system. Seeing them at Portland and Pawtucket you could tell that they were going to be productive major leaguers, especially in Lester's case.

But for every Lester and Buchholz that come along there are plenty of pitchers who don't become impact players, or even good players for that matter. Here are just a few Red Sox pitchers who will be remembered not for their successes, but for their failures.

JERRY CASALE – Signed by the Sox in 1952, the Brooklyn native and contemporary of Sandy Koufax spent seven successful seasons in the minors, once winning 19 games, before making it to Boston for two games in 1958. Placed in the starting rotation the next year, Casale was 13-8 for a fifth place team. His 4.31 ERA, huge for the time, should have been a red flag, but the team was scoring 5+ runs a game for him. The next season the run support dried up, Casale went to 2-9, and in 1961 he went to the Angels in the expansion draft. By 1963 he was out of baseball, but opened a very successful restaurant in New York City.

DON SCHWALL – He essentially replaced Casale in the 1961 rotation and had a very similar season to Casale's rookie year, going 15-7 with 10 complete games and two shutouts. Schwall was the AL Rookie of the Year, beating out Dick Howser for the honor (and also beating out his rookie teammate Carl Yastrzemski) and pitched three innings in the All Star Game at Fenway that season. The next season, he couldn't find home plate, walked 121 and dropped to 9-15. That was it for him with the Sox, as he and catcher Jim Pagliaroni were traded to Pittsburgh for Dick Stuart. Schwall had some okay seasons with the Pirates, winning 22 and losing 23, but he was gone from the game by 1967.

DAVE MOREHEAD – Dave came out of Hoover High in San Diego, Ted Williams' alma mater, as another can't miss prospect. He struck out 159 for the 1962 Seattle Rainiers, and made the Sox rotation the following year. The teams he played for were bad, but Morehead was a bad pitcher on a bad team. He went 10-13 and 8-15 in his first two seasons. In 1965, he pitched a no-hitter against Cleveland (beating Luis Tiant in that game) before a "crowd" of 1,247 at Fenway. Morehaed bounced around between the majors and minors for the next few seasons before going to the Royals in the 1969 expansion draft.

BILLY ROHR – Perhaps the biggest flash in the pan in baseball history, Rohr provided the first of many dramatic highlights of the magical 1967 season, holding the Yankees hitless for 8 2/3 innings, helped by Carl Yastrzemski's diving catch off Tom Tresh (with Ken Coleman's classic radio call "Yastrzemski going hard, way back, way back, and he dives and makes a treeeeeemendous catch."). In his next start, Rohr beat the Yankees again, giving up eight hits, but just one run. He was 2-0. And he would only win one more game in his career. Rohr lost three games and was back in the minors by May. IN '68 he was sold to Cleveland, won one game out of the bullpen, and that was it. Even though he played until 1972, Rohr never made it back to the majors

BRIAN ROSE – The Sox don't often draft players from Massachusetts, but Rose was one of them, chosen in the third round of the 1994 draft, way ahead of Carl Pavano, who was selected in the 13^th round that year. The two came through the minor league system together, often thought of as a tag team. Rose was 12-7 at AA Trenton in 1996, his second full year in pro ball, and 17-5 for the Pawsox in 1997 (Pavano was 16-5 and 11-6 in those two years). Brought to Boston in '98, Rose just never seemed to get it together, going 1-4 and 7-6 before being traded to Colorado in 2000. He went from there to the Mets and Tampa Bay going 4-7 total and ending up out of baseball in 2001. He shows up on Sportsdesk sometimes now, as a Red Sox expert, although you have to wonder how much he can really analyze pitching. Pavano, meanwhile, was traded to Montreal in the Pedro Martinez deal and is still pitching for the Twins.

So, you never know what to expect with young pitching. As we watch guys like Casey Kelly and Felix Dubront make their way to Fenway, it's important to remember that sometimes, can't miss turns into can't pitch.

The Best Laid Plans

2010-05-27T10:56:00.001-04:00

It turns out this was the way they drew it up over the winter, especially the Tuesday night 2-0 game against Tampa Bay. The starter (Lester) goes six innings and gives up only one hit. The relievers (Delcarmen, Bard, Papelbon) each throw a clean inning, the defense (Adrian Beltre with two diving plays and Youk with a couple of great picks at first) gobbles up everything in sight, and the Sox win.

Add in a little unexpected hitting and suddenly the tables are reversed in the Trop – or at least the tables are set the way they were when the Devil Rays occupied the place. The Red Sox, clearly the superior team this time around, beating up the hapless opponents.

Have the Rays regressed that far? Of course not. No team plays .720 baseball for a full season the way Tampa Bay has so far. This is what is known on Wall Street as a correction. The Sox were there to help the Rays correct themselves. They are still a real good team and still in first by five games.

Are the Sox so good that they can easily dump the team with the best record in baseball three times in a row on the road? Of course not. This is still the team that got swept by the Orioles last month. But this is also a correction for the Red Sox. They are better than a sub-.500 team, and the Rays were there to help the Sox correct themselves. They are at this point fifth in the Wild Card, but only a game and a half out.

This was an important stretch of games for Boston: 13 games, 11 of them on the road, all against first or second place teams. They started on a downer, losing two of three in Detroit, but then split with the Yankees, swept two from the Twins, took two of three from the best team in the NL (Phillies) and blew away the best team in the AL (Rays). 9-4 against anybody is great, but 9-4 against those particular teams shows that the Sox may be becoming what they were supposed to be when the season started.

And, in addition to pitching and defense, the Sox are scoring runs, including 19 in three games against the excellent Tampa Bay pitching staff, and averaging 5.3 runs a game over the 13-game stretch. David Ortiz has stood out this month, and it points out how much difference a real home run hitter can make in a lineup. Youk has been on base all month, and with two home runs and a triple on Wednesday, Adrian Beltre showed that maybe his power numbers will go up as the season goes on.

Now, the Sox have to keep it up against some of the weaker teams in the league. This next stretch of 14 games against the Royals, Athletics, Orioles and Indians is as vital as the last 13 games were to the Sox' success. They've shown that they can beat the good teams. Now they have to show that they can dominate against teams they should dominate.

My wife points out that every year when the Yankees win seven or eight in a row, come alive, and go from fourth to first almost overnight, I always say "Here they come." Well, here come the Red Sox. Maybe they aren't as good as they have been in the last two weeks. I have to admit they certainly aren't as bad as they were in April. But they are making it more interesting. And that was the plan all along.

I want to believe

2010-05-22T13:25:00.000-04:00

I want to believe. I really do. I want to believe that the 2010 Red Sox can do what the Yankees have done for the last few years: suck until Memorial Day and suddenly come out of it and, if not win the division, at least make a run.

But Red Sox past teams have done the opposite. They race through April and May with the best record in baseball, then end up fighting to make the playoffs.

This year's club hasn't raced through anything. They have slogged along for the first quarter, sometimes looking pretty good, sometimes looking pretty bad, based primarily on who the competition is.

It's obvious that the Sox are not at the level of the Rays. Nobody is at this point, and since 2008 Tampa Bay has been able to beat us consistently. They have 23 wins (of 30) from their starting pitchers. By comparison the Sox have 16.

The Sox are 3-5 against the Yankees, which is at least approaching respectability there. But Boston is 2-4 against Baltimore. That's the problem this year. It's one step forward, one step back. They are one game over .500 as I write this, and don't seem able to go on any sort of winning streak.

That said, it's time for the first quarter report card, taking each part of the team as a whole.

Offense: The team is, surprisingly, second in home runs, third in hits, fourth in runs scored. Considering the problems David Ortiz and Victor Martinez have had, and the injury to Ellsbury, this is amazing. Youk and Pedroia quietly get the job done while Adrian Beltre has been a consistent .300 hitter. His power numbers are miniscule compared to what they once were, but 22 RBI is decent. Grade: Above expectations.

Defense: The headline in the paper said "Celts Winning with Defense." And that works in basketball. You can't say the Red Sox are winning with defense because that doesn't happen in baseball. In fact, the Sox rank 8^th in the American League in fielding percentage – exactly the middle of the pack. And you have to figure catching into the defensive grade, because where else does it belong? The Sox have given up an amazing 49 stolen bases and have 10 caught stealing, with at least five of those on pickoffs. A good start toward improvement in this category would be to convince Victor Martinez that you don't catch a runner stealing by throwing the ball toward the center fielder. Grade: Way below expectations.

Starting pitching: Where's Beckett? Now he's on the disabled list, but where has he been since his opening day loss? When the guy you count on to be your ace has one win, that's not a good sign. Lackey has been mediocre at best, winning when he gets six or seven runs to counter his 5.07 ERA. Matsuzaka is making 2009 look like a total anomaly. It's good to see that Lester has put his usual slow start behind him and become the ace, while Buchholz has 11 wins since the All-Star break last year. Grade: Lester and Buccholz even out Lackey and Beckett, so let's say meets expectations.

Bullpen: They brought back mediocre Joe Nelson to replace the terrible Scott Schoeneweis and that's considered an improvement. Bard is hot and cold, Delcarmen is hot and cold, Okajima is hot and cold, Ramirez is just cold, Atchison hardly ever pitches and they’ve blown 40% of their save opportunities. Grade: Way below expectations.

Closer: Jonathan Papelbon hasn't wanted to be here for the past several years. His idol is Mariano Rivera and he wants to pitch in New York. How to accomplish this? Well, follow Roger Clemens' lead: Start your career strong. Then, inexplicably get worse and worse for a couple of years. Change your delivery. Rely too much on one pitch. You leave as a free agent. Maybe get the GM to remark that you may be "in the twilight of your career." Suddenly you rejuvenate yourself, and end up in New York, maybe with a detour through Toronto. Grade: Below expectations.

Manager: Tito has had his hands full this year. Mike Lowell is unhappy, David Ortiz is unhappy, two-thirds of his starting outfield hasn't played in a month and a half, the run prevention thing doesn't work (I wonder if he actually thought it would), the fans are unhappy. Through it all, there's a calm in the manager's office and an ability to put the best face on this mess. Grade: Exceeds expectations.

Front Office: In reality, Theo was right last winter. This is a bridge year. On one side of the bridge is the foundation of World Series heroes like Ortiz, Varitek and Lowell (remember, it was the fan base that basically forced the Sox to re-sign Lowell after 2007), on the other, the younger stars like Youkilis, Pedroia and Lester. In the middle are all the mediocre players populating the roster this year. Once the Ortiz side of the bridge is off the books, the team can replace that foundation. But for now they are basically taking up space. There's no point in trading prospects for players this year. What can be done? Basically, wait 'til next year. Grade: Given that Theo expected to win 95 with this club, below expectations.

Team as a whole: They are what their record says they are, which is an average team. So though I hope this season isn't a lost cause, the Sox haven't given me much to believe in so far.

Who are you, Red Sox??

2010-05-11T12:09:00.001-04:00

It's time to ask the real Red Sox team to stand up.

Is it the team that got swept by the lowly Orioles?
Is it the team that swept the good-but-not-as-good-as-last-year Angels?
Is it the team that got blown out by the Yankees Friday and Saturday or the team that blew them out on Sunday?

It's all of the above in this maddening, inconsistent season.

Over the last several off-seasons, the Sox have tried to bring in a big bat to replace the gone Manny Ramirez and the going David Ortiz. They haven't been able to do that and have settled for a lot of mediocre shortstops and one pitcher. Now, the team that has taken shape takes a whole lot of patience just to watch play.

Other than Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, who somehow just go out and produce every day without a lot of fanfare, this team is a model of inconsistency.

John Lackey beats the Angels with ease. In his next start, he gives up six runs against the Blue Jays.

Adrian Beltre once hit 48 home runs in a season and has a .272 career average. Now he has two home runs, but has turned into a singles hitter with his .334 average. He also has a reputation as a great fielder, even though he had 29 errors in 1999 and 19 in 2003. This year, he's on track for 35. And even when he doesn't make an error, it's an adventure, like on Monday night when a ball bounced off his arm and into the stands behind third for a 95-foot ground-rule double.

J.D. Drew's inconsistency is well-documented, with one good month every year.

The former Big Papi hits two home runs in a game one day and strikes out three times the next day. This inconsistency might be the most maddening, because one day we think that the old Ortiz is back, and the next day we think he ought to be released.

The rotating outfielders can't even be consistent. Darnell McDonald seems to put the bat on the ball pretty well, but Jeremy Hermida looks as streaky as Drew, and Bill Hall is just like Beltre – still living on one big year that he will never duplicate.

In the bullpen, while Scott Schoeneweis and Ramon Ramirez have just been bad, Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon have been, for the most part, good: MDC giving up no hits in nine of his 14 appearances and Pap 9 for 9 in save opportunities. On the other hand, Daniel Bard can't seem to find a groove, and you never know if his 98-mile-an-hour fastball will strike a batter out or end up out of the ballpark.

So where do teams that are good one day and bad the next end up? At .500, which is exactly where the Sox are today.

Quick Hits

2010-05-06T09:33:00.001-04:00

Attention Bruins fans: Someone has stolen your team and replaced it with a good one. The B's are on the verge of making it to the conference finals for the first time since the first Bush Administration (1992). That team featured Andy Moog, Adam Oates, Don and Bob Sweeney, a young (26) and injured Cam Neely and current media members Barry Pederson and Andy Brickley. The captain was Ray Bourque, who came as close to a cup as he ever came with the Bruins.

David Ortiz: Don't know how to figure him after a three-homer week. I'd like to think he is back to where he was at the end of last season, but I need a bigger sample. If he can come back to hit .250/28/90 by the end of the year, it would be a good way to end his career. A far cry from his 50+ home run seasons, but if 28/90 are considered good numbers for Kevin Youkilis, then they should be considered good numbers for Papi at this stage of his career.

J.D. Drew: 9-for-20 so far in May. Could this be his 2010 equivalent of June 2008? What a streaky hitter. Too bad it's only one hot streak every two seasons.

Last two games: Eight runs scored, two given up, no errors, three double plays, only one stolen base. Maybe the pitching and defense thing has finally shown up.

Anaheim Angels of Not Los Angeles: Without Vlad and Figgins a very different team. They don't seem to go from first to third as much and don’t seem to put the pressure on teams as they once did. And Matsui doesn't look quite so menacing when he's grimacing in an all-red uniform.

Pawsox: Leading hitters are Blue Jays retread Angel Sanchez (.345) and Daniel Nava (.307), who hit well over .300 in the low minors last year. But nobody is pitching well there and the team is in last place.

Ernie Harwell: One of the last from a great era of broadcasters. I once went to a Tigers Spring Training game, sat right under his booth and listened to him for the entire game. So smooth and easygoing, very casual, not rushed. Of course, it helped that he didn't have to drop in little ads and stupid contests all the time.

When Things Go Bad

2010-05-02T20:38:00.000-04:00

How bad can it get? Enough to get swept by the Orioles, who now have seven wins, four of them against the Red Sox.

But now, the next seven games are against the Angels and the Yankees. How bad can it get? A lot worse.

There seems to be a pattern developing in the way games go. Either they get involved in a shootout that they are more than likely to lose (12-9 on Saturday) or they play a close game, with the starter leaving after six or seven innings with the game tied. Eight of the Sox 14 losses have been bullpen losses. Meanwhile, no starter has more than two wins.

But it's not just the bullpen. The team that was built on defense is next-to-last in the American League with 18 errors in 24 games, and is fourth in the American League in unearned runs given up, with 11. By comparison, the Yankees have given up four unearned runs and the Rays three. It hasn't taken long to expose the theory that good defense prevents runs as nothing but a fraudulent way of manipulating statistics.

In theory, the good side of this mess is that, come mid-summer, the Sox could be sellers, and send some of their players off to other teams in exchange for some good prospects. But who would want the players that we make available: Ortiz? Lowell? Martinez? Nobody's going to give up a prospect for any of them.

So, as the year gets uglier, all we can do is wait for the end of the season when Theo will either blow the team up or come up with some crazy new statistical stupidity to justify his personnel moves as he has since Mark Teixeira's wife chose New York.

For baseball's first 120 years or so, general managers got by without depending on crunching numbers over and over to prove a theory. They used their eyes and their gut feeling to decide whether a player was useful or worth having on the team. Maybe it's time to go back to that way of doing things, so we don't continue to pay the Bill Halls of the world $8 million to hit .214 with one RBI. Instead of Moneyball, we could just call it baseball.

Random thoughts

2010-04-27T22:38:00.001-04:00

I went into work this morning and my coworker said to me "Some game last night, how do they top that one?"

I answered "Probably a 2-1 game tonight."

Wow. I was right.

It's pretty amazing how often that happens in all sports. One night a shootout, the next night a defensive gem. And speaking of defensive gems, when are the Red Sox going to start having a few of those? Adrian Beltre is starting to look like the second coming of Butch Hobson 1978, when he couldn't throw anywhere near first base.

This is what was supposed to be an easy stretch for the Sox, with 12 games against Texas, Baltimore and Toronto after a series with the Rays (what a disaster that was) and upcoming series against the Angels and Yankees. Instead, while the Sox have won six of eight games, they haven't looked very convincing in doing it. Every one of the wins has been by one run, and, up until the Tuesday 2-1 game, every one has been high scoring: 7-6, 8-7, 4-3, 7-6 and 13-12. They're scoring runs, which they weren't doing earlier in the year, but they're also giving up runs in bunches, which wasn't supposed to happen. How bad was the pitching on Monday night? The Blue Jays scored 12 runs with a lineup that would make Mario Mendoza proud. Four players (Hill, Overbay, Buck and Snider) hitting under .200.

Meanwhile, as Ned Martin famously said, "There's Pandemonium on the Field" as the Sox start making moves that basically leave them exactly the same instead of better. Josh Reddick leaves, Jonathan Van Every arrives. Scott Atchison leaves, somebody named Fabio Castro arrives. Just one stiff for another. And then there's the Cuban catcher, Fidel Castro, or something like that, who supposedly has a great swing. If he can throw out at least 1% of baserunners stealing against him, he has the job.

If the Red Sox are to have a shot at the playoffs, these teams are the teams they are going to have to beat up. We already know they can't beat the Rays or the Yankees (a combined 1-6) on the field. So, if they are going to beat the Rays or the Yankees in the standings, they're going to have to do it by having a much better record than those clubs against pretty much everybody else. So far, they haven't proven to me that they can do that.

Now We Need Stupidity Prevention

2010-04-20T10:51:00.001-04:00

It took a while, but I finally figured it out. This is why run prevention doesn't work. In other sports, you score by getting the ball/puck into a specific place: the hoop, the goal, the end zone, and it's literally possible to prevent that from happening.

The Patriots put on a goal-line stand, and the Colts are prevented from scoring.

Tim Thomas makes a great save, and the Canadiens don't get a goal.

KG swats away a shot, and the Heat don't get that game-tying basket.

See what I mean?

Now, in baseball, it's different. How big is a baseball field? An acre and a half? And there are only nine fielders out there. Those nine players can't possibly get to every ball that's hit. If they could, every game would be a no-hitter. The strategy is to position those players where they will have the best chance of catching the ball. The key word here is chance.

The run prevention theory that the Red Sox have adopted this year is that you get the nine fielders with the best UZR, put them out there and let them prevent runs from scoring the same way a goal-line stand, a great save or a blocked shot does.

Wrong. The team has given up 61 runs through 12 games.

Then there's the idea that combining this great defense with great pitching (which, by the way, has been noticeably absent this year) is the key.

The days of Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA (1968) or Luis Tiant's 1.91 ERA (1972) are gone. Today, even a good pitcher will have an ERA over 3.00. Josh Beckett's career ERA is 3.79. That means his team will have to score four runs or better for him to win.

And that also means it's not how many runs you prevent that counts, it's how many runs you score that counts.

And how do you score runs? As Wee Willie Keeler (lifetime .341 hitter) said back at the turn of the 20th century, "Hit 'em where they ain't." And that's just what every other team is doing to the Red Sox.

Freaky Friday

2010-04-17T13:25:00.000-04:00

Friday night's suspended game against the Rays could be the season in a nutshell. In the pitching department, Josh Beckett pitched a great game, giving up only four hits (and two of those were suspect and one unearned run. He deserved better than a no-decision. This was one of his best performances in two years.

But…

Then there's the defense, which cost the Sox the game. Let's start with four stolen bases. Varitak and Martinez are fast becoming the gang that couldn't throw straight and a real bad joke. And why does every one of Victors' throws sail high? Does he think Randy Johnson is the second baseman? And, of course, the Rays' run was scored because of Julio Lugo – make that Marco Scutaro's – throwing error with two outs. Crawford reaches on the error, steals second (of course), then scores from second when Adrian Beltre loses a ground ball in the lights!!!

Varitek redeems himself with a game-tying home run, but then a base-coaching blunder costs the Sox the winning run as Tim Bogar tries to get Youk in from first. Question: Has Tim Bogar ever coached third base? Why was he moved from first base coach? Was "Send-'em- in" Wendall Kim not available? Ron Johnson, the new first-base coach coached third at Pawtucket for years and was really good at it. Why didn't the Sox have him coach third and leave Bogar at first? Just asking, since that coaching arrangement cost the Sox the game. Or will cost the Sox the game if the suspended game doesn't go their way.

Oh, and by the way, the offense has scored one run in the last 18 innings.

This and That

2010-04-13T06:47:00.000-04:00

Red Sox ownership probably wasn't there when Target Field opened in Minneapolis yesterday. But maybe they were watching on television and decided that it is time to stop promoting Fenway Park as somehow "new" because of the $200 million worth of lipstick and Jordan's Furniture ads they painted on the pig. Target Field is new, and looks it. Fenway Park is still old, and all those seats in right field still face Logan Airport.

If the Red Sox defense is so good, how come the other teams keep hitting the ball to places the defense can't reach? It seems like most of the balls the Twins hit on Monday were grounders up the middle, liners to the gap or home runs.

Most everybody in baseball considers Albert Pujols the best player in the game today. If he is, then Joe Mauer is a close second. The guy's lifetime batting average is .327 vs. .334 for Pujols.

I always thought that the great Web site baseball-reference.com had every bit of information you could ever need. This season they added some players' preferred bats. For Yaz it was the Blond Hillerich & Bradsby W215. Derek Jeter dumps the ball into right field with runners on second and third and two out using a Black Smith Finish Louisville Slugger P72.

Nomar ended his career with a .313 batting average over 14 seasons. Even in the "twilight of his career," after he left the Sox, he hit .287 from 2005 to 2009. He may have left under a self-induced cloud, but he was a far-better-than-average ballplayer.

Bullpens are a funny thing. One year good, the next year bad. This looks like a bad year for the Sox, which is unfortunate, because a good bullpen can be the difference between going to the World Series and finishing third in the division. Just ask the 2008 and 2009 Rays. The core of the Boston bullpen is the same as last year: Papelbon, Delcarmen, Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Daniel Bard. But none of them are producing the way they did last year. Okajima's WHIP is 2.000, Ramirez has given up 5 hits and 5 runs in 1.1 innings, and it is a tossup which MDC is going to turn up from one night to the next.

One thing about the unbalanced schedule and interleague play is that we see a whole lot of Vernon Wells and not enough of any player in the Central or Western divisions. So, it has been a revelation over the first seven games to see what an interesting hitter Adrian Beltre is. Sure, he will never hit those 48 home runs again, but the ball jumps off his bat, and most everything he hits is a line drive. You can see why he has averaged 34 doubles a year.

It's not just sad to watch David Ortiz swing the bat, it's downright painful. Last year, pitchers were getting him out on 92 mile and hour fastballs. This year, it's 88. We used to worry about interleague games in National League parks, when we couldn't use our DH. Now, we're looking forward to them so we can get a few games without Ortiz in the lineup.

2010-04-11T10:04:00.001-04:00

Once it was easy to decide what to eat at the ballpark "Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack." Well, peanuts and Cracker Jack have given way to foods I would never eat anywhere, let alone a ballpark.

Aramark, the Red Sox concessionaire, seems to add some new stuff all the time. At Fenway it tends toward the more traditional foods – brick oven pizza is new this year, as an addition to the long-time fan favorite, glass-enclosed heat lamp pizza. For the last few years there have been Hilltop steak tips and Legal Seafoods clam chowder, as well. You can buy Dunkin' Donuts coffee, but not Dunkin' Donuts.

In other ballparks, where they have more space for concessions, things tend to get more exotic. Last year I went to a Mets game at Citi Field, where they have a stand called Box Frites, that sells gourmet fries and dipping sauces. Did you ever think that a ballpark would have "dipping sauces?" Then there's Beers of the World (hi, neighbor, have a Tsingtao).

Red Sox fans in Kansas City for the Royals series this weekend can try the catfish sandwich (Named for Catfish Hunter? He started his career in KC.) In Colorado, there's Infield Greens, a salad bar. Atlanta has a Georgia Dog, topped with cole slaw and onion relish. Toronto has Quaker Steak and Lube boneless wings (with a free oil change?). But who would want to miss the Boston Dog at Angels Stadium of Not Los Angeles? It's a hot dog topped with baked beans and bacon. Yuck!

And, of course, things like nachos are everywhere now. I remember back in 1988 or 1989, the family went to a game at Fenway and my daughters wanted nachos. We were sitting in left field in section 30-something, and I took off to find nachos, I walked and walked and finally found the nachos stand on the concourse under section 9 or 10, near where the ambulance waits. Then I made my way back, weaving around with my prized plastic tray, through the bottleneck at section 14, up the ramp past the main gate and along the third-base concourse, the yellow cheese-like product having congealed into cement as I walked.

Even that is a far cry from the 1960s, when everything was a quarter. Hot dogs came in cellophane wrappers that blew around the ballpark for most of the game. Popcorn was sold in those cardboard megaphones with the hole in the bottom, where the last of the popcorn dropped into your lap. You got something resembling Coke (really ice, seltzer and a hint of Coke syrup) in a paper cup with a soft plastic top that was sort of welded or heat sealed onto the lip of the cup. But the most amazing item was the ice cream, just because of the packaging. It was a rectangular block of Hood chocolate/vanilla/strawberry ice cream in a little cardboard box with a wooden spoon ingeniously tucked into the lid. What a marvel!

But with all those choices, to this day nothing says baseball like a lukewarm hot dog in a soggy bun with Gulden's brown mustard and no dipping sauce.

Another Opening, Another Show

2010-04-05T00:00:00.001-04:00

The team that doesn't plan on making any errors this year made a huge one when it brought out some 5 year old kid to say "Screw You" to the Yankees on National television.

1-2-3 first. Maybe there is something to this defense thing. Only 1457 more of these and we'll be OK.

Beckett seems to be working the corners more than he did last year. Just got one right over to Posada and he homered. Now another homer. You can have the best defense in the world, but when the other team hits the ball over the defense into the seats it doesn't matter. How many more times do I have to say this?

Bottom 2^nd – Ortiz grounds out to first, Youk to 3^rd. Not a home run, but this team is going to have to learn to paly small ball – move runners over. Now a sacrifice fly scores a run. Wow! We've become the Angels. Lackey must feel right at home.

Beckett is getting two strikes, but can't seem to put anyone away. Pitching kind of like Dice-K. Double play helps in the 3^rd.

Marco Scutaro #1 in the Jays lineup, but #9 here.

How did Cameron get far enough off first to get picked off? Turns out he didn't. Time to expand replay in baseball. Let the manager throw a beanbag out.

First defensive miscue as Ellsbury misplays a ball off the wall. 3-run inning ensues. Ever heard the expression "Hit 'em where they ain't?" The Yankees are hitting them where the Red Sox ain't. That’s the way to beat a team based on defense. Now a double steal. Yankees saying "Screw You" right back.

An hour and 20 minutes to play 3 ½ innings. It's already a long night in more ways than one.

Looked like Beckett might get it together for an easy 5^th inning. But Cano & Posada get on and Beckett is gone. Pretty lousy performance. Schoeneweis vs Granderson, lefty vs lefty. Granderson strikes out. At least one thing works out.

Took until the 5^th, but finally, a second hit, but with 2 out. And another! And another! And a run!

Bottom 6^th – CC finally tired and the Sox tie the score. Nice 3-run rally. 5-5. Settle in folks, this is going to be a 4 hour game.

No givebacks, Oki!!! Nveer mind. Right back it's given. 7-5 NY. Hey! We got Steven Tyler sobered up to sing God Bless America.

How old is Chan Ho Park? Getting older by the minute as Pedroia dumps one into the Monster Seats. 7-7 in the 7^th. Damaso Marte is signed for 3 years. I'll take 3 more years of wildness like that. 8-7 Sox. Here's Joba, who gets Beltre. Probably be back for the 8^th.

Nice 8^th by Bard, getting his nemesis Teixeira (3-6 with 2 home runs) to ground out to end the inning. Sets the stage for the real, live Neil Diamond leading a real, live Sweet Caroline. Let's keep the Dodgers in Brooklyn? A little late, Neil. How about some insurance, Sox?

Sox get the insurance on Pedey's 3^rd RBI of the game 9-7. If Papelbon is effective, the Sox win. If Papelbon melts down again, it's Mo's game to save. It's all up to the closers now.

Pap gets it done in impressive fashion. Sox win 9-7 after trailing 5-1. It was a game a lot like the early Sox-Yanks games last season. We get into the Yankee bullpen and take over the game. Hard to not get excited about how this game went, as Sox showed some offense. Not a lot of pitching or defense, though. Back at it Tuesday, 'cuz it's a marathon, not a sprint. Off to bed happy.

DEE-fense

2010-04-03T09:56:00.001-04:00

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, welcome to Fenway Park for opening night between the New York Yankees and the Boston Bruins.

That's right, the Boston Bruins.

No, Zdeno Chara and Tim Thomas haven't been waiting since the Winter Classic to play at Fenway again. But, if you take all the pronouncements coming out of the Red Sox front office lately, it's easy to get the two teams confused.

The Bruins' strategy throughout the entire Jacobs ownership era has always been to be just good enough to battle through the regular season, fight for a playoff spot and hope that the little band of underperformers can crank it up in April and win the Stanley Cup. This unique way of thinking has resulted in no Cups for 37 years. In fact, it's been 17 years since the Briuns have even made it to the conference finals. If you're a Bruins fan, you know the whole, sad story. Emphasis on a certain goal, unwillingness to keep good players around for the sake of a few bucks and, now, a stated emphasis on defense, which sometimes works out and sometimes doesn't. On Tuesday, they won 1-0; on Thursday, they lost 1-0. Their top goaltender, Tuuka Rask, leads the league in goals against average at 1.99. Their top scorer, Patrice Bergeron, is 87^th in points.

Emphasis on a certain goal, unwillingness to keep good players around for the sake of a few bucks and, now, a stated emphasis on defense. Sound familiar?

The Sox goal is 95 wins every year. We've heard that for a while now. 95 wins should be good enough to make it into the playoffs. That's all well and good, but there's another team in the division whose goal is not 95 wins and a trip to the playoffs. That team's goal is to win the division and to win the World Series. I've never heard Brian Cashman state a number of wins he hopes to reach, but I'll bet it's higher than 95.

The B's have a long history of being unwilling to sign free agents or to put out the bucks to keep the players they have. Phil Kessel, Joe Thornton, Jason Allison, Brian Rolston and Bill Guerin are just a few of the players who have come and gone on Causeway Street. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have made a few big splashes in free agency, but have the same history of keeping the players they have. The feeling on Yawkey Way is that they don't want to be locked in to a contract when there is any fear of injury at all. Thus, Pedro and Jason Bay end up with the Mets and Johnny Damon with the Yankees. Note that this feeling doesn't apply to overrated shortstops, though. The Sox are still paying Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo.

And then there's defense. As we all know, defense and a hot goaltender in the playoffs can win a Stanley Cup. Defense and a hot goaltender in the regular season gets you a fight to make the playoffs. That's exactly where the punchless Bruins are now. The Red Sox are in uncharted territory. No team has ever been assembled with the assumption that run prevention will win games over the 162-game regular season. I'd rather have a team of good hitters over a team of good defenders. Put another way, I'd rather have Jason Bay than Marco Scutaro. What happens when the other team's good hitters hit the ball over our good defense and into the seats? It's like the NFL overtime rule. You can't win if you don't get your hands on the ball.

So, the two teams move into April trying to achieve their goals, however modest (or inflated) they are. In the end, the owners are happy, the money flows in, and the fans are left to watch other team play deep into the postseason.

A Little Advice

2010-04-01T18:33:00.001-04:00

It's almost opening day, and –

if you're an Orioles fan, be happy you've got all those hitters to watch, because the pitching may be brutal.

if you're a Rays fan, put down the cowbell and hope that 2010 is like 2008, and not like those other 11 seasons.

if you're a Yankees fan, get over yourself and be glad that damn number five pitcher controversy is over before it ruins the team.

if you're a Red Sox fan, start cutting out a giant D and a fence out of poster board, and hope it works and doesn't end up as an experiment gone wrong.

if you're a Blue Jays fan, wonder how your pitching has gone so far south that Ricky Romero is your ace.

if you're a Twins fan, enjoy the new ballpark, Mauer's contact and your new status as almost a big-market team.

if you're a Tigers fan, remember to hold the door open in July, when the fire sale to reduce the payroll begins.

if you're a White Sox fan, think about how deep your pitching rotation is and where Jermaine Dye is after all these years.

if you're an Indians fan, buy a program so you'll know who all the new guys are as your team rebuilds again.

if you're a Royals fan, well, it could be worse, you could be a Pirates fan.

if you're a Mariners fan, take pleasure in watching Ichiro every day and dream of King Felix and Cliff Lee taking you into the playoffs.

if you're an Athletics fan, keep track of who will have the most strikeouts, Jack Cust or Ben Sheets.

if you're an Angels fan, wow, that's still a deep team you're rooting for, even without Lackey, Figgins and Vlad.

if you're a Rangers fan, hope that Andrus and Borbon inject some fun into a team that never seems to be fun to watch.

if you're a Mets fan, hope that the Wilpons will act on their Dodgers fixation and buy that team if the McCourts' divorce ends with LA on the market.

if you're a Phillies fan, don't do anything. Things couldn't be better.

if you're a Marlins fan, watch the new ballpark go up and hope that the revenue streams keep Josh Johnson, Dan Uggla and, especially, Hanley Ramirez in town.

if you're a Braves fan, with all the Jason Hayward talk, don't forget how good Dale Murphy was.

if you're a Nationals fan, don't give up. It could be worse. Your team could up and move to Montreal.

if you're a Cardinals fan, make sure you enjoy every minute that Albert Pujols gives you. He's special.

if you're a Reds fan, say hi to Bronson Arroyo for me. Always a favorite in these parts.

if you're a Brewers fan, think about what the sausage race would be like if Prince Fielder were a part of it.

if you're a Cubs fan, well, just stop counting. You are getting yourself depressed.

if you're a Pirates fan, try to get your ownership to spend at least the amount they get in revenue sharing on player salaries.

if you're an Astros fan, be glad that Berkman's still around, because the other Killer B's are Bourne and Blum.

if you're a Dodgers fan, hope that the Wilpons won't act on their Dodgers fixation and buy that team if the McCourts' divorce ends with LA on the market.

if you're a Giants fan, know that you've got at least a couple of giant talents in Lincecum and Sandoval.

if you're a Padres fan, sit back and relax. It's going to be a long year.

if you're a Rockies fan, at least your backup infielder position is solid with Melvin Mora.

if you're a D-Backs fan, guess how many of his teammates combined strikeouts it will take to equal Mark Reynolds' total.

If you're a baseball fan, enjoy 2010. Let the games begin.

AL East, Part 2

2010-03-27T18:11:00.000-04:00

Last week I looked at the Orioles and Blue Jays. This week, with a week until the opener, here's a preseason look at the Rays and Yankees.

Two years ago the Tampa Bay Rays were the rags-to-riches story. Everything came together and they made it to the World Series, losing in five games to the Phillies. Last year, they added Pat Burrill to fill a supposed hole in right field while David Price and Jeff Niemann joined the starting rotation. The Rays were supposed to be even better. But, somewhere along the way it didn't work out. Dioner Navarro, Carlos Pena and Scott Kazmir were unable to duplicate their '08 numbers (Kazmir was ultimately traded to the Angels for three minor leaguers), the bullpen had injuries and Brian Shouse, and the team got off to a bad start and finished third at 84-78.

So what to expect in 2010? Tampa Bay still has solid pitching, good, young position players and a nice blend of speed and power.

The pitching staff's reputation is close to that of the Yankees and Red Sox, but they are going to have to prove that 2008 was not a case of everybody having a career year at the same time. "Big Game" James Shields, the veteran of the staff at age 28, slumped to 11-12, while Matt Garza, who seems to be able to beat the Red Sox at will, was 8-12, while Andy Sonnestine finished 6-9. That’s 25-33, folks. It was the rookies, Niemann and Price, who were able to keep the starting staff afloat going a combined 23-13. There will have to be improvement there. In the bullpen, Rafael Soriano was brought over from Atlanta to close, allowing J.P. Howell to move back to setup. He ended up closing most of the time as the two-year Troy Percival experiment was a medical disaster.

Around the infield, Carlos Pena should rebound from injuries that saw his average drop to .227, but he still hit 39 home runs and knocked in 100. It seems like he's been around forever, but will turn just 32 in May. Ben Zobrist finally settled at second last year, after Akanori Iwamura was hurt, and had an all-star season. Steady Jason Bartlett hit a career-high .320, and Evan Longoria established himself as one of the best players in the majors.

Outfield remains kind of a puzzle. Matt Joyce, finally given the right field job, has had elbow problems this spring and Gabe Kapler is the backup plan, with Gabe Gross now in Oakland. B.J. Upton will show flashes of brilliance, but at this point, his .261 lifetime average may be what he will be. Carl Crawford continues to hit .300, hit somewhere around 15 home runs and steal 60+ bases. But, he's a free agent after this season and if the Rays get off to another slow start and are out of it by July, the, um, frugal Rays management might send him elsewhere for prospects.

All in all, there are a lot of questions for the Rays. Which pitching staff will show up? Can Pena and Navarro raise their averages? Will Zobrist be better or worse? Will Crawford, the face of the franchise for eight seasons, end up out of town? Will they ever get approval for a new ballpark? The answers will determine if the Rays are contenders or not in 2010.

Moving on to the Bronx, there are not a lot of questions. The biggest issue through the spring has been whether Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain would be the fifth starter, a question that feels like it has been going on for years. It's one of those things that you can't solve just by throwing money at it, so the team didn't know what to do. They finally decided on Hughes. This was of great interest to Kevin Youkilis, because the outcome determines whether Chamberlain hits him early in the game as a starter or late in the game as a reliever.

Now that question has been answered, the next question is, "Are these guys ever going to get old?" While the Sox older players (Ortiz, Lowell, Varitek) seem to be turning to stone before our eyes, the Yankees older players (Jeter, Posada, ARod, Rivera) have career years. Must be something ARod is putting in the water at Magnificent New Yankee Stadium.

As for the rest of the team, they marked Johnny Damon for elimination and traded to get Curtis Granderson, who may hit 30 home runs in Magnificent New Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, Damon's production will go down moving to the huge field at Comerica Park from the smaller Magnificent New Yankee Stadium. They have finally given Brett Gardner the left field job, and brought back Nick Johnson as DH. The pitching staff added Javier Vasquez, who has been a 12-15 game winner everywhere he has been (except for that last time in New York).

While the Red Sox plan is to get 95 wins every year, make the playoffs, and hope to get to the Series, the Yankees plan (and only they have the money to do it) is to win 102 games and win the World Series. Tough to compete with that. But somehow twice this century, the Sox have done it.

Now, let's start the season.

2010-03-21T21:14:00.001-04:00

With less than two weeks to opening day, it's time to take a look at the other AL East teams, beginning at the bottom and working our way up. Today, it's the Orioles and Blue Jays.

BALTIMORE: The Orioles are, at this point, similar to what the Rays were in 2007 and 2008. They have plenty of hitters, but the pitching is young and hasn't been able to go deep into games. Then, if you can get into their weak bullpen, you can beat them.

The team has built a core of good young hitters, led by farm-system product Nick Markakis, who is a .298 hitter with 77 home runs over three seasons. Last year, they added catcher Matt Wieters, who already might be the best catcher in the American League not named Mauer, and Nolan Reimold, who started his career with a solid .279 season. Add Adam Jones and Luke Scott, acquired in trades, and the core of good, young players is there.

Scott came to the O's in a trade for Miguel Tejada, who is back with the team, this time as a third baseman, and Garrett Atkins, who is anxious to show that his .226 season in Colorado last year was an aberration. They, along with Brian Roberts, back for his 10^th year in Baltimore, bring veteran leadership to the developing youngsters.

The Orioles' pitching received a boost when veteran Kevin Millwood joined the rotation. Millwood has had some success against the Red Sox, going 2-0 1.45 ERA in three starts last year against Boston. Jeremy Guthire and Brad Bergeson fill the 2-3 starter slots, while the Birds' first round pick in 2008 is hoping to get the fourth starter nod ahead of 21-year-old Chris Tillman. In the bullpen, former Brave and Pirate Michael Gonzalez becomes the closer, a role he last handled on a regular basis in 2006.

All in all, the Orioles outlook is improving. It has to improve when you lose 98 games in the previous year, but if those young pitchers mature, you could be looking at a team that will mirror the Rays' rise in 2008.

TORONTO: The Jays enter the season with a change at the top, Alex Anthopoulos replacing J.P. Riccardi for a team that has had winning seasons about every other year. Things started off real well for the team last year, going 15-9 in April, playing Detroit, Cleveland and Oakland. Then they started playing the other AL east clubs and things went south, bottoming out in an 8-16 July that included 14 games against the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox.

Roy Halladay is gone. Why keep him around if he can't get you to the top of the division, I guess, but the Jays' pitching is still decent. Shaun Marcum returns for the first time since 2008 after elbow surgery, and he could be the opening day starter after two impressive performances this spring against the Yankees and Rays. He's followed by Ricky Romero, who won 13 games as a rookie last year. Then there are two more youngsters, Brandon Morrow and Marc Rzepczynski. Veteran Dustin McGowan, who, like Marcum, has been inactive since 2008 with a shoulder injury, will miss the start of 2010, likely giving Brian Tallet the fifth starter position. Kyle Drabek, who was part of the Halladay trade, may be up by midseason.

The Jays not only traded Halladay last year, but also let Alex Rios go and traded Scott Rolen at the deadline. The offense will not miss them much, though, due to the emergence of Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. The two combined for 71 home runs last year. Vernon Wells will try to rebound after a .260 season with 15 home runs, and Lyle Overbay will likely have another steady season at first, with his usual 15-67 home runs, .265 average and 70 RBI. Sort of the north-of-the-border J.D. Drew. The trade of free agent shortstops that got the Jays Alex Gonzalez for Marco Scutaro will give them more defense (or defence in Canada), which is important on turf. John Buck moves over from Kansas City to catch, perhaps as a placeholder for Travis D'Arnaud, acquired in the Halladay deal.

All in all, not a great makeover this season for Toronto. The team ended up 75-87 and they may end up around there in 2010. But this season, that record might find them looking up at a .500 Baltimore club.

Next: Tampa Bay and the Yankees

Fort-unate

2010-03-15T20:18:00.001-04:00

I just got back from Florida, and three Sox games early in the trip, March 6 (Twins), 7 (at Orioles) and 8 (Cardinals).

Some observations:

I never really saw the "official" starting lineup. In fact, I never saw Lowell, Varitek or Beltre at all. But I did see a lot of David Ortiz, who was 1-for-9 with a walk. That was his only hit until today, when he was 2-for-2 with a home run. He has adjusted his stance to start more on his back leg, trying to generate more power.

As for the rest of the starters, in the three games I saw, Cameron (1-6), Drew (1-5), Ellsbury (0-3), Martinez (1-6), Scutaro (2-3), Pedroia (0-3), Youkilis (1-2) were a combined 6-26. Throw in Ortiz and the starting lineup was 7-35, a .200 batting average. That pitching-and-defense thing had better work with that kind of hitting.

I did get to see a lot of pitchers including Lackey, Bowden, Delcarmen, Shouse, Nelson, Tazawa, Buchholz, Atchison, Bonser, Bard, Kelly, Manuel, Beckett, Papelbon, Okajima, Ramirez (the one from last year, not the new one), Delcarmen again, Richardson, Bierd and Patterson. Lackey and Beckett were impressive. Making his first start for Boston, Lackey breezed through the Twins, including Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. Clay Buchholz started the next game against the Orioles and was knocked around, giving up three runs in two innings, including a Nick Markakis home run. But Josh Beckett, starting the game against the Cardinals, looked like the Beckett of 2007, pitching three no-hit innings and striking out three as well. Time to pony up the cash to keep him here.

The bullpen was the usual – some good, some bad. Boof Bonser struck out three in two shutout innings. Hideki Okajima breezed through an inning with two strikeouts, and MDC was his usual self – pitching a scoreless inning the first time out, then having control problems the second appearance.

I did get to see the first appearance of Casey Kelly against the Orioles. He looked like he was throwing mostly fastballs and sliders, and had command of both pitches. He walked one and struck out one. I hope we get to see him at Portland this summer as he develops.

Another prospect I was interested to see was Jose Iglesias, the Cuban shortstop. He only handled one chance, and it was the Nomar Garciaparra signature play, going in and to his left and throwing across his body to first. Nice play. Oh, and he also hit a line drive home run to left that cleared the fence with room to spare. It would have been a double at Fenway, but it was hit hard. What if we ended up with a shortstop that was a top-quality fielder and could hit with some power? Haven't seen that since, well, since Nomar himself, circa 2001.

As for Nomar, and his "I'm retiring as a Red Sox" trick, hasn't he turned into a major-league hypocrite? Didn't want to be here as a player in 2004, but wants to retire here. Maybe it was the standing ovation last year that warmed his heart. Or maybe it was grandstanding by his new employer, ESPN. And, while the guy hated the media, and had a red line installed on the clubhouse carpeting to keep the media away from his locker, he's not above taking the Worldwide Leader's money. I just hope he doesn't start turning up at opening day and the other occasions when the other old-timers appear.

Now, back to Spring Training. The Red Sox won all three games with some late-inning heroics, including a Tug Hulett three-run homer, a Luis Exposito home run, and a run-scoring walkoff single by Che-Hsuan Lin, another prospect to watch. With those players coming up big, it could be a great year for the Pawsox.

Since I left the Fort, Clay Buchholz has had a better outing, the regulars are starting to hit, and I came back to Boston to find no snow on the ground. Flying home, Mariano Rivera was on the flight (really). Maybe he's going to be waiting in Boston for the rest of his team to join him when the season opens in just two weeks.

Who woulda thought...

2010-02-22T20:23:00.001-05:00

That Eric Gagne would be back in the major leagues.

That the Minnesota Twins payroll would be $98 million at the start of spring training.

That Jacoby Ellsbury would be a regular left fielder.

That Johnny Damon would be one of the last free agents to sign with a team.

That the Los Angeles Angels of Not Los Angeles would lose Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, Chone Figgins, John Lackey and Vladimir Guerrero in the space of two seasons.

That the Red Sox would be a team built on pitching and defense like the 1980s St. Louis Cardinals.

That Clay Buchholz would be slotted in the rotation ahead of Tim Wakefield and Dice-K.

That Dodger Stadium is the third-oldest ballpark in baseball.

That curling is an Olympic sport and baseball is not.

That we went through the entire offseason already.

That the Red Sox reliever with the longest tenure on the team is Manny Delcarmen.

That the Pawsox would be installing a new HD video board this season that is larger than either Fenway's or Foxboro's.

Back in the days of Manny and Big Papi that the Red Sox cleanup hitter in 2010 would have a career average of 22 home runs a year.

That David Ortiz's most-alike player on Baseball-Reference.com is Mo Vaughn.

That Jon Lester leads all starters in winning percentage for 2006-2009.

That all the Yankees have "intangibles," but none of the Red Sox do.

That the Red Sox are totally satisfied to win "our 95" as Theo puts it. Especially when they are in a division where the other guys don't seem satisfied with 95. The Red Sox have become the Bruins, satisfied to sneak into the playoffs with the last seed on the last day of the season and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. It worked for the Sox twice. It has never worked for the Bruins in the Jacobs era.

Controversy!!!

2010-02-16T18:51:00.001-05:00

It's been a fairly quiet off-season for the Red Sox. General Manger Theo Epstein has gone about his business, signing some new players, sending others packing and building the 2010 team.

But quiet doesn't work for the newspapers that want to sell more papers (although they sure aren’t doing a great job of that) and radio stations that want people to call and argue with the hosts. They need controversy, or as they call it, story lines. So, they have to create controversies, or story lines, to get us through the off-season.

With the off-season over, it's time to see where some of these controversies have left us as the players converge on Fort Myers.

The biggest controversy over the winter was the Jason Bay situation. Although he wanted to stay here, or so we heard, he ended up with the Mets for more money and a longer contract than the Sox were offering. Sure, he wanted to stay here, but it isn't about where somebody WANTS to play, it's about where somebody can get the most money. How often does a hometown discount really come into play? The end result was that Mike Cameron ended up in Boston, which created the next controversy.

Now that Mike Cameron has arrived, Jacoby Ellsbury is being asked to move to left field. How will he react to that? Will he be as good in left field as he was in center? How dare this new guy come in and move our center fielder to a different position? Well, it's not like Ellsbury is being asked to move to Pawtucket or Portland or something to make way for Cameron. He's played left field in Fenway before, Cameron has not. And if Cameron suddenly starts acting his age and has trouble in left, there's nothing that says they can't switch back. The biggest controversy here should be that Ellsbury has switched from #46 to #2, making all those Ellsbury jerseys and t-shirts obsolete.

Then there's the controversy about what happens when you have six starting pitchers to fill five slots. Remember last year when the Sox had eight starting pitchers to fill five slots (Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Smoltz, Penny, Buchholz, Masterson)? By the end of the year, Wakefield was on the DL, Matsuzaka sucked, Smoltz and Penny were released, Masterson was traded and Junichi Tazawa was getting starts. These things always have a way of working themselves out. Remember that when they have to turn to Michael Bowden in the middle of that four-game series in New York in August.

And all this doesn't even include story lines like "What's going to happen to Mike Lowell?" "Can David Ortiz be Big Papi again?" "Will Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez be back in 2011?" "What ever happened to Jed Lowrie?" "Is JD Drew as good as his OBP numbers?" It's like everybody except Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia has a contrived controversy swirling around them.

The official reporting date is only two days away, and most of the players are already in camp. It's time to put these issues to bed and start on some new ones.

Question: "Clay Buchholz put on 17 pounds. Is he too fat?"

Answer: "Not to anyone who remembers David Wells."

And who are THESE guys?

2010-02-13T07:25:00.001-05:00

Now that Spring Training is just a couple of days away, it's time to get familiar with the players who will be playing in the late innings of games. Last time I looked at the players signed over the off-season. But besides the players signed from other organizations, the Sox also bring in some of the younger prospects from the minors. Here are the prospects.

Lars Anderson, 1B – Last year I said he could get some at bats in the big leagues, but he hit a wall in Portland with 9 home runs and a .233 average. I saw him hit two homers in one game at New Britain last season, but he also took some really bad swings. Seems like he's been around forever, but is only 22.

Yamaico Navarro, SS – Played at three levels last year – Lowell, Salem and Portland. Yet another in the long line of shortstops from San Pedro de Macoris in the Dominican. Pretty good fielder, who came to Portland after Argenis Diaz was traded to Pittsburgh for the eight days of Adam LaRoche.

Kris Johnson, LHP – I don't know if he can still be called a prospect after a 3-16 season at Portland and Pawtucket, but he does get his first invitation to Spring Training, so somebody must see something there, maybe memories of Jason Johnson?

Kyle Weiland, RHP – Third rounder in 2008 has yet to be above A-ball. Struck out 112 in 132 innings at Salem last year after a nice 2008 season in Lowell with a 1.50 ERA.

Zach Daegas, OF – Has moved smartly through the system, hitting .307 in Portland last year. Kind of a young Kevin Youkilis, he can stretch at bats and draw walks – 192 of them in 4 seasons and a .411 OBP.

Che-Hsuan Lin, OF – No relation to Fred Lynn, played center field for Taiwan in the 2008 Olympics. 59 steals over the last two seasons at Greenville and Salem, which for some reason gets him invited to Spring Training.

Adam Mills, RHP – No relation to Brad Mills or General Mills. Had a nice 10-5 season at Portland before being promoted to Pawtucket where he was 2-2.

Ryan Kalish, OF – I still don’t get all the fuss over Ryan Kalish. In four minor league seasons his numbers, .281/27/142/60 steals (that's his total, not an average) seem kind of Coco Crisp-like. Good, but not exceptional.

Luis Exposito, C – A 31^st round pick has made a name for himself with his defense, throwing out 28% of base stealers, but seems to be able to hit, posting combined averages of .293 in '08 and .287 in '09.

And finally, this year's hot prospect

Casey Kelly, RHP – Finally decided to be a pitcher at the end of last season after hitting just .224 in half a season on the Greenville mound. Once he started pitching, he had a 0.853 WHIP and 7 Ks per 9 innings. Is already being talked about as part of the rotation next season. Is related to former major leaguer Pat Kelly, his dad.

An invitation to Spring Training is certainly not a ticket to the big leagues. And when a guy is wearing number 96, it's not a good sign. But if, improbably, Yamaico Navarro makes the team, he'll probably give up the 96 for something a little lower.

Who Are These Guys?

2010-02-09T18:57:00.001-05:00

You never know what you're going to get when the list of invitees to spring training is announced. Usually they are rookies on their way up, veterans on their way down, or the core of the Pawsox. Last year the group included Daniel Bard and Josh Reddick plus Nick Green, who was a relatively productive member of the big team until he became the first shortstop to come down with Steve Blass disease midway through the season. Then again, talking about a Red Sox shortstop as "productive" is totally relative.

This year, there's a brand new list of wannabees, couldabeens and neverweres, and heeeeeere the are:

Randor Bierd, RHP – What a great name. Came to Boston in the David Pauley deal (What? You don't remember the David Pauley deal?) a year ago after pitching 29 games in '08 for the Orioles. Last year was 3-1, 4.55 for Pawtucket in 61 innings.

Fernando Cabrera, RHP – Making his second straight appearance on the list, Cabrera was the Pawsox closer last year with 22 saves. Hasn't started a game since 2003. I always got him confused last year with Enrique Gonzales, who is now in the Tigers organization to avoid further confusion.

Gil Velazquez, SS – Another repeat appearance for Gil, who saw his average drop from .260 to .193 at Pawtucket. I always get him confused with Geronimo Gil, Benji Gil and Gus Gil.

Angel Sanchez, IF – Has played a total of 8 games in the majors. Saw him in the Caribbean Series, where the announcer says he "doesn't like to dive for a ball." Imagine him playing next to Dustin Pedroia, who has his uniform dirty by the third play of the game.

Joe Nelson, RHP – A guy who seems to blow his arm out every other year and keeps coming back. Pitched 3 games for the Sox in 2004 and got his ring with an ERA of 16.88. Threw some for Tampa Bay last year, gave up 32 hits in 40 innings.

Brian Shouse, LHP – 73-year-old situational lefty, who also pitched for the Sox before, back in 1998, when as a 61-year-old, gave up a total of nine hits in eight innings. Since then has moved to Kansas City, Texas, Milwaukee and Tampa Bay.

Darnell McDonald, OF – Former first round pick of the Orioles, played 47 games in Cincinnati last season and hit .267.

Gustavo Molina, C – Not the fourth Molina brother. Has 17 games of major league experience over three seasons. Hit .209 in the minors last year.

Edwin Moreno, RHP – Pitched 5 games for San Diego, with an amazing 1.925 WHIP. That's almost 2 base runners for every inning he pitched. Kind of the Latin American Dice-K. Sox are his fourth organization.

Jorge Sosa, RHP – Started his career as a starter with Tampa Bay before being traded to Atlanta for Nick Green, making his second appearance in this column. Best season was 13-3 with the Braves in 2005, has 18 wins in the four season since then.

So much for the retreads, next time, we'll look at the prospects.

This and That

2010-01-30T08:14:00.001-05:00

The MLB Network was showing the 1967 All-Star Game the other night. What a collection of Hall-of-Famers: Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Robert Clemente, Brooks Robinson, Harmon Killebrew all in their prime. Yaz played for the American League and was on base six times (3 for 4 with a couple of walks). This was his triple-crown year. Tony C. also played for the AL, and played and played and played. The game went 15 innings and most of the starters were in there for the whole thing. It was a pitchers' duel that ended 2-1, with all the runs scoring on home runs, Richie Allen (or was he Dick Allen then?) in the first and Orlando Cepeda in the 15^th for the NL and Brooks Robinson for the AL. Watching it back in '67, I remember that the game seemed to go on forever, but it actually took only 3:41 to play a game and two-thirds, about the length of a nine-inning World Series game today.

We all know that fans of other teams have it a lot better than we do as far as getting tickets to games. They don't have to worry about ticket lotteries or virtual waiting rooms or paying for tickets (and "convenience charges") for a game that won't be played for seven months. This was brought out last weekend when I got tickets for a Sox-Orioles spring training game in Sarasota. I went on the Web site, was connected immediately, bought some good seats, and was done in four minutes. Of course, the downside for Orioles fans is that they haven't had a winning season since 1997.

But speaking of Baltimore, the team they are putting together reminds me of the 2006-2007 Devil Rays. They have the hitters: Markakis, Roberts, Scott, Jones, Reimold, Weiters can all put the bat on the ball, plus they added Miguel Tejada. But, just as the Rays were depending on young pitching that hadn't developed yet, the Orioles need Bergesen, Berken and Hernandez to develop before they can be considered a contender. Adding Kevin Millwood will help, as he brings a veteran presence to a very young staff.

Elsewhere in the division, it seems like the Blue Jays have gone fishing during the off-season since trading Roy Halladay to the Phillies and "trading" Marco Scutaro for Alex Gonzalez. Their depth chart looks pretty much like it did last season. Despite losing Halladay, the Jays will be okay in the pitching department with Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan coming back, Ricky Romero emerging as a top starter and that guy with the unpronounceable name (Ruzipcznkski?).

Remember the WWJDD (What would Johnny Damon do) T-shirts that used to show up around here? Well, the question has come up all winter, as he still doesn't have a place to play. There's still a chance he could go back to New York to hit home runs out of the Magnificent New Little League-Sized Stadium. The Yankees seemed to be offering $2 million for him to come back, but they just signed Randy Winn for exactly that amount and how many outfielders do they need? He will end up somewhere, but it looks like Damon valued himself a lot higher than the rest of MLB. Still an idiot.

I know it's only January, but signs of spring are everywhere. It's now light when I leave work, MLB has come out with a new set of really ugly hats that everyone has to wear for batting practice, and it's only about three weeks until Truck Day. I think I'll skip it this year. It's kind of like watching someone move out of a house, except Wally is there.

Now I'm here to look back

2010-01-12T19:09:00.001-05:00

So now we have Mark McGwire, the leader of the MLB's steroid brigade, finally 'fessing up. Why? Because he wants to be the Cardinals' hitting coach and the tearful apology looks to be part of the package. Now McGwire can make a few more millions working for his enabler, Tony LaRussa ("I never saw him do anything illegal"). But if one of his goals was to redeem himself and start to rebuild his reputation for the Hall of Fame, Monday's performance basically locked him out of Cooperstown.

Home run record...fake. Appearance before congress...fake. Apology and crying...fake. Is there anything real about Mark McGwire?

If you ask me, what he did to the game was far worse than what Pete Rose did. Rose's gambling habits did not have any effect on baseball's most sacred record. But McGwire stole that record, before it was stolen from him by another big-headed, small-minded jerk.

If Pete Rose is banned from baseball, McGwire should be as well. None of this hitting coach stuff. Get out and stay out.

At the least, McGwire should be suspended as the Cards' hitting coach for the first 50 games of the season. A token gesture, but a slap on the wrist nonetheless. I'm no fan of A-Rod or Manny, but when they were found to be using, MLB suspended each of them. Bud Selig should do the same for McGwire.

Baseball is the loser in this, again. Jose Canseco is the winner in this, again. He was right all along and he's still right.

Remembering the 2000s

2010-01-09T13:54:00.001-05:00

Everybody is doing “Top 10 of the Decade” lists, and so am I. Here are the games I went to in the 2000s that stand out for me. Note that these are games that I actually attended, so things like the comeback in 2004 or the World Series wins aren’t here.

July 23, 2002
It’s Nomar’s birthday and in the first game of a day/night doubleheader he hits three homers (including two in one inning) and has 8 RBIs as the Sox win 22-4. Unfortunately, I go to the night game, when the Sox lead the Devil Rays 4-0 going into the 9^th. Chris Haney can’t protect the lead, Ugi Urbina can’t protect the lead either, and the Sox lose 5-4.

September 27, 2003
The Sox trail 5-2 going into the bottom of the 9^th. Todd Walter hits a 3-run homer to tie the game. David Ortiz hits a walkoff homer in the bottom of the 10^th for the win.

March 17, 2004
My first spring training game, and Curt Schilling pitches six innings of two-hit ball and Big Papi homers. This is the game when Nomar supposedly fouled a ball off his ankle and ended up on the DL. I was sitting right behind home plate and did not see that happen. Some rookie named Youkilis, wearing number 55, plays the final three innings and walks in his only at-bat because he is, after all, the Greek god of walks.

October 8, 2004
The Sox have taken the first two games of the ALDS in Anaheim and are looking for the sweep behind Bronson Arroyo. They lead 6-1 after six innings when Arroyo leaves the game. Mike Myers and Mike Timlin surrender the lead, and Vlad Guerrero hits a grand slam to tie the game. David Ortiz hits a walkoff homer in the bottom of the 10^th for the win, again.

April 14, 2005
The Sox are playing the Yankees on a cold night at Fenway. Bronson Arroyo against Randy Johnson seems like a pitching mismatch, but the Red Sox offense is in high gear, hitting three home runs (Payton, Renteria, Varitek) for an 8-5 win. As if that wasn’t enough, Gary Sheffield gets into a fight with a fan in right field while chasing down a ball. The fan is ejected, but Sheffield stays.

July 26, 2005
It’s a battle of future aces as I go to New Britain, CT to see this young pitcher named Jon Lester pitch for the first time. He shows a good curve that he really can’t control and leaves after 4.2 innings trailing 4-0. But he did strike out six. Too bad his teammates, who include Hanley Ramriez and David Murphy, can’t provide a little offense against Glen Perkins.

June 8, 2007
It’s the first time I’ve seen the Sox on the road. Playing in Arizona, Julio Lugo homers to lead off the game, JD Drew hits two home runs and Josh Beckett improves to 9-0 with a 10-3 win.

April 12, 2008
The Sox have a 4-3 lead on the Yankees, who have two on and two out in the 8^thand A-Rod coming up when it starts to rain and rain and rain. There is a two-hour rain delay before Papelbon strikes out A-Rod on three pitches. The Sox win as Pap gets Robbie Cano to ground out in a 10-pitch at bat.

May 19, 2008
It is wicked cold at Fenway and so windy that I can’t keep score. Around the 5^th inning, I tell the person I’m with that the place is going to clear out as soon as the Royals get a hit. They never do, as Jon Lester throws a no-hitter, the second I’ve seen live.

April 22, 2009
It’s the Pawsox, behind Clay Buchholz, hosting Rochester, but Buchholz is gone after five with the game tied at 2. In the 9^th, Daniel Bard strikes out the side on nine pitches, but Rochester leads 7-2. Pawtucket rallies in the 9^th scoring five including a Jonathan Van Every grand slam. In the 11^th, the Pawsox string together a walk, a sacrifice, an intentional walk and two more walks to score the winning run without a hit. Two days later in Boston, 9^th and 11^th inning lightning strikes again.

April 24, 2009
Yankees lead 4-2 in the bottom of the 9^th. Jason (Let’s Go Mets) Bay hits s two-run homer off Mariano Rivera to tie the game. In the bottom of the 11^th, Youk hits a walkoff home run. Two walkoff wins in three days. Jonathan Van Every plays in both games.

There were a lot more games, but these stuck out. While I had to go back to scorecards and baseball-reference.com for some of the details, these are the games that I remembered as most memorable during the decade gone by

Mission Statement

2010-01-07T21:15:00.000-05:00

Call it what you want, philosophy, mission/vision/values, or something equally high-sounding but ultimately inane, but most businesses have some sort of statement that defines their practices. Remember, though, that a Dilbert comic several years ago best describes most of these lofty ideals as “a long, run-on sentence showing an organization’s inability to think clearly."

The Winter Classic hockey game at Fenway Park on January 1 brought the Bruins into the spotlight for a while at least. This spring it will be 38 years since the team has won the Stanley Cup, which pretty much coincides with the Jeremy Jacobs ownership of the team. Jacobs has never articulated his mission statement to my knowledge, but based on the team’s performance, I think it is “we want to build a team that is just good enough to make it into the playoffs on the last weekend of the season and get blown away in the first round. That way we can keep enough of a fan base to sell 17,000 tickets a game while maximizing our take.” From the point of view of maximizing the take, it’s worked. From the point of view of winning the Stanley Cup, well, 38 years is a long time.

The Red Sox have spent the offseason letting us know that their philosophy is to “win 95 games every year.” In the American League East this means that the philosophy is to “finish second every year and hope that we win the wild card.” In other words “we want to build a team that is just good enough to make it into the playoffs on the last weekend of the season and get blown away in the first round unless we get lucky like we did in 2004 and 2007.” Last year the philosophy worked to perfection as the Sox finished second, made it into the playoffs on the last weekend of the season and got blown away in the first round of the playoffs.

All the Sox moves so far this winter have been made with the same mission in mind. The team has spent $20 million on average or below average ballplayers like Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro and Jeremy Hermida. Beltre has a lifetime average of .270, Hermida and Scutaro are at .265 and Cameron, who has been overrated his entire career, is a .250 lifetime hitter. For less than $20 million a year they could have had Matt Holliday.

But remember, all that doesn’t matter now because we are going to win on pitching and defense. Who cares that your biggest rival has nine guys who can hit the ball over your defense and into the stands? We don’t care that their philosophy is to spend what it takes to win the World Series. We’ll take our 95 wins and be happy that we have done our jobs and come October we can hit the golf course. “Jeter is playing baseball today, but this is better.”

Best and Worst Moves of the Decade

2009-12-29T10:30:00.001-05:00

BEST MOVES (in no particular order)

Signing David Ortiz: One of the Twins’ worst moves of the decade became one of our best. Big Papi was a huge presence in the middle of the lineup and the smiling face of the franchise. Without his clutch hitting in the 2004 ALCS we don’t come back to win that series or even make it to the World Series.

Signing Manny Ramirez: As Dan Duquette said at the time, “I’ve just signed Jimmy Foxx in his prime.” Manny certainly earned his money, averaging 36 home runs and 114 RBIs a season while he was here, winning a batting title, a home run title and a World Series MVP. “Manny being Manny” was also a fun diversion for a while, until it got out of control, which led to…

Trading Manny Ramirez: Manny pouted his way out of town to LA where they built a season’s worth of marketing around “Mannywood” before finding out that Manny would be suspended for illegal drug use.

The Hanley Ramirez-Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell Trade: This was one of those trades that benefited both clubs. Hanley Ramirez has turned into a superstar, five-tool player for the Marlins. Beckett and Lowell were instrumental in winning the 2007 World Series.

Yawkey Trust sells the team: During the 68 years that Tom Yawkey, Jean Yawkey or the Yawkey Trust owned the Red Sox, the team made four appearances in the World Series, lost them all in seven games, had a couple of near-misses, and became known for racial intolerance when all the other teams were becoming more inclusive of black and Latin American players. Maybe it wasn’t the Curse of the Bambino, maybe it was the Curse of the Yawkeys.

Pedro: Even though he arrived in 1998, two years before the start of the decade, he was a joy to watch and has to be on this list. Pedro was only here for seven seasons, but he was the dominant pitcher in the American League for that time. Averaged 17-5/2.52 pitching in the toughest division in baseball. Come to think of it, letting him go was also a good move in the long run. His four years with the Mets produced only 32 wins, with 15 of them in his first season.

Terry Francona: Nobody knew him when he arrived in town, but Tito has turned into the perfect manager for a veteran team. Lets them play without getting in the way, covers for their stupidities, is able to integrate the younger players into the team. His record speaks for itself: He’s only the second manager in team history to lead the club for six or more consecutive seasons. The other one is Hall-of-Famer Joe Cronin.

WORST MOVES (in no particular order)

Letting Orlando Cabrera go: A steady fielder and a steady hitter, but that wasn’t good enough for the Sox, which led to…

Edgar Renteria: Couldn’t hack it in Boston offensively or defensively, which led to…

Julio Lugo: Couldn’t hack it in Boston offensively or defensively.

Pete Schourek: It seemed like every game I went to in 2000 he pitched and lost. Not surprising since he was 4-15 with a 4.97 ERA in 54 games over 2000 and 2001.

The Joe Kerrigan Era: Take a good pitching coach, make him the manager and only bad things can happen. The team was in freefall when Jimy Williams was let go in 2001 and Kerrigan only made it worse, which led to…

The Grady Little Era, and we all know how that ended up, with one of the worst moves in baseball history.

The Freddy Sanchez – Jeff Suppan trade: Sanchez went on to win a batting title with Pittsburgh and become a steady .299 career hitter. Suppan was supposed to be the great trade deadline pickup of 2003. Instead, he was 3-4 with an ERA over 5 and a half. He was gone to St. Louis the next year, and the Sox belted him around in the World Series.

Halfway to Opening Day!

2009-12-27T16:58:00.001-05:00

And so this is Christmas (or a few days after), and what have we done?

In the case of the Red Sox, a lot and not very much. A lot of churning the roster, but not a lot of improvement. Here’s a take on the first half of the postseason.

They did sign John Lackey, which gives them a valuable and very good pitcher to serve as the No. 3 starter. When you essentially have three No. 1 starters in Beckett, Lester and Lackey, it gives you a good chance to at least win two out of three games in a series when those three are pitching. It’s when you get into the back end of the rotation that things could go very good or very bad. Clay Buchholz seemed to find a groove over the last six weeks of the season, and if that carries over, he is as solid a number four starter as most teams have. Then we get to number five. Who knows what either Dice-K or Tim Wakefield are going to produce in 2010. Wakefield was one of the best pitchers during the first half of 2009, then got hurt and disappeared for the second half. Matsuzaka was AWOL all year, and there is no evidence that he is going to be anything like the super-lucky 18-game winner that he was in 2008, or even the 15-game winner he was in 2007.

Bullpens always have a lot of movement both during the season and in the winter, but the core of the Sox bullpen is still around. Papelbon was last seen melting down against the Angels. Manny Delcarmen was last seen melting down any time the score was close. Okajima maintained his reliability, and Ramon Ramirez was reasonably steady, steady enough, in fact, that they traded to get another Ramon Ramirez. The supporting players will fall into place as they always do, but a reliable setup guy to pitch the eighth inning would be helpful. Maybe it can be Daniel Bard, who looked so good when he first came up, only to appear to tire down the stretch.

Offensively, the Red Sox are hoping at this point that the defense and pitching will win games. The top of the lineup is pretty good, with Ellsbury/Pedroia/Martinez/Youkilis, but Youk has never been a classic cleanup hitter (35+ HR) and, at age 31, will never become one. What happens after that is another guessing game. David Ortiz regained his form after his lost two months, and had pretty good power and RBI season after that, but again, who knows what to expect. New acquisition Mike Cameron strikes out a lot and is even older than Ortiz or Mike Lowell,;Jeremy Hermida is average at best. JD Drew is JD Drew and is probably due for another injury round about now. We missed Marco Scutaro’s career year by one season, and the black hole at shortstop will probably gobble him up.

The fact that Jason Bay’s agent has come back to the Sox is nothing but a negotiating ploy designed to get the Yankees interested in throwing wads of their unlimited cash at him. He doesn’t really want to be here. The Yankees are not done yet. Bay or Holliday will end up in left field there.

And speaking of the Yankees, their payroll plus luxury tax total was $246 million. People said that with the new Yankee Stadium they would be able to support a $300 million payroll and they’re getting close. Isn’t it time to put all of baseball on a level playing field? Even the other big-market clubs can’t come close.

What will the rest of the off-season produce? Well, a first baseman or a third baseman would be nice. Mike Lowell is not an answer on either side of the infield, especially with his thumb surgery. If he comes back from that without any bat speed, he will be totally useless. That likely means Adrian Gonzalez, since they appear to be done free agent shopping which would preclude signing Adrian Beltre. As for Gonzalez, I would not give San Diego Jacoby Ellsbury, but I would give up Buchholz, maybe Bard, and a raft of prospects, except for Casey Kelly. Gonzalez is 27, in his prime and hit 40 home runs in a huge ballpark, and giving up Ryan Westmoreland, Michael Bowden and one or two others to get him would solidify the position for years to come. True, you might be giving up a future star, but you’re getting a present star.

So, we’re a week away from 2010, and lot can still happen, but we’re only seven weeks away from Truck Day, the day when all our hopes for the new season go south, if they already haven’t.

Short Stops at Shortstop

2009-11-28T07:47:00.004-05:00

Shortstop has been a problem position for the Red Sox the way drummer has been a problem position for Spinal Tap. They just can't keep anybody around. Since trading Nomar in 2004, the team has used Pokey Reese, Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Cora, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Royce Claytopn, Gil Velazquez, Jed Lowrie, Nick Green and Alex Gonzalez again.

Theo has never cheaped out on a shortstop before, signing Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo to long and lucrative contracts, before having to dump tem because the couldn't play in Boston.

But now, Theo chooses to nickel and dime Alex Gonzalez and a shortstop that could play here, and play here well, is off to Toronto. The option now appears to be Marco Scutaro, who was the Blue Jays shortstop and who will never duplicate his .282/12/60 2009 season. So theguy we want goes to Toronto and the guy they didn't want comes here.

First botched move of the winter.

The next step is the pursuit of Roy Halladay, who has been one of the best pitchers of the last decade, averaging 17 wins and pitching well over 200 innings a year. With an average of six complete games a year, he is a throwback to the time when pitchers went into a game expecting to pitch all nine innings. The Sox philosophy has always been the opposite of that. They make sure that their pitchers don't rthrow too many innings. They even go so far in the minor leagues as taking a pitcher out in the middle fo an inning when he is throwing a shutout because he has reached his pitch count. The Sox minor league pitchers don't have any idea what it is like to pitch into the seventh inning because they never do that. You would think they would look at HAlladay as someone who has thrown too many innings and whose arm is about to fall off. Plus, he'a a free agent after next season and we all know what a sorry record the Sox have in keeping their free agents.

That's why, if the Sox are about to empty the farm sustem in a trade, they should go after Felix Hernandez or Adrian Gonzalez. Hernanzed emerged in Seattle last year as one of the top pitchers in the game at age 23, second in the Cy Young voting. He was 19-5 and is compared to Pedro Martinez. Gonzalez could solidify the middle of the batting orfer. With protection around him like Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis, and playing in a smaller park, he should be able to improve on his 37 home run, 122 RBI lifetime averages.

Not to say that Halladay would not be a good pickup. But when you are giving up prospects, you hve to think a bit more long-term, and that is what Hernandez and Gonzalez give you - more in the long term.

And then there is left field. Jason Bay turned down $60 million from the Red Sox to become a free agent, and the whole affair has a real familar feel to it. "Just going out to try the free agent market" means this is being orchestrated by Brian Cashman, who tells free agents to pretend to play the market even though the deal is already made and the pinstriped jersey is waiting for them. And I don't mean the Phillies, Marlins, Twins or Astros pinstriped jersey.

That's OK, maybe Matt Holliday is a better fit here anyway. At least he doesn't strike out as much. Interesting that on baseball-reference.com's similarity scores, Holliday's #2 similar player is Jason Bay and Bay's #8 is Matt Holliday. Bay's #7 similar player is Trot Nixon, which throws some doubt into the whole "similar player" thing because I don't see Bay and Nixon as similar players at all, either statistically or in how they play the game. But Holliday's agent is Scott Boras.

With Cashman and Boras pulling the strings, this whole thing may turn out badly for the Sox, who mat end up with some second rate left fielder. I wonder what Troy O'Leary is up to now.

Free Agent Fiascos

2009-11-21T10:04:00.001-05:00

On November 1, 1976, Major League Baseball held its first free-agent draft. That sounds like an oxymoron. How can it be both? Well, the owners were in panic mode after the Curt Flood/Andy Messersmith/Dave McNally/Catfish Hunter decisions combined to shred the reserve clause and it became obvious that free agency was going to be real, and a real problem.

So the owners decided to try to control the process by having a draft. Each team could choose negotiating rights to five free agents, and each free agent could be “drafted” by no more than five teams. So, for example, if Bobby Grich was “drafted” by the Pirates, Twins, Orioles, Cardinals and Royals, he was off the market and could only negotiate with those clubs. Free, but not so free. All the clubs participated except the Dodgers, who basically announced that they were too good and too historically minded to participate in such crass commercialism. Also too cheap.

Anyway, one of the Red Sox draftees was pitcher Bill Campbell of the Twins and, just five days later, the deal was announced. It was a pretty good deal for Boston, as Campbell was 13-9, 2.96 in 1977 with 31 saves. That was the best season of the four he spent here, getting only 20 more saves in the next three seasons.

Since then, the Red Sox have been one of the most active teams on the free agent markets, with some successes (Manny Ramirez for most of the contract) and a lot of misses (Jack Clark and Matt Young, who pitched a no-hitter and lost).

But one thing that has been constant through the years has been the team’s inability to sign its own free agents and keep them in Boston.

This goes back to the 1980-81 offseason, when the Sox failed to offer contracts to Fred Lynn and Rick Burleson, allowing them to sign with the Angels, then sent Carlton Fisk his contract a day later than the deadline. He was declared a free agent and signed with the White Sox.

The list of their own free agents that the Sox have not signed includes Bruce Hurst, who went to the Padres. How times have changed. The Padres once could sign free agents. Then there was Wade Boggs, who left to go to the Yankees, Roger Clemens (in the twilight of his career), Mo Vaughn, Tom Gordon, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez, Johnny Damon (there are those Yankees again).

Which brings us to today, as we watch Jason Bay hit the free agency with what appears to be predictable results. The Sox negotiated with Bay all season and could not come to an agreement. Last week, Bay rejected a $60 million, four-year offer. If that deal was on the table in June, I’d bet it would have been accepted. But, at that time the Sox were only offering a three-year deal.

So now Bay is out there looking at offers. His agent says that there has been a lot of activity. Possibly, but how many teams can pony up $15 mil a year? Maybe Bay doesn’t want to stay here. For that matter, maybe the Sox don’t want him back and would prefer Matt Holliday, who is more of a pure cleanup hitter and struck out 40 fewer times than Bay. But Holliday is a Scott Boras client, which complicates any negotiation.

However it works out, there are some holes to fill on this team, including the long-standing black hole at shortstop. It would be nice to get the left field situation straightened out.

Separating Rumor from More Rumor

2009-11-15T10:17:00.000-05:00

It’s that time of year when the rumors are flying faster than birds heading south for the winter. And if you believe all of them, you probably believe all the crap that spews from Scott Boras’s mouth.

Everything the guy says is designed to make you believe that some third-string catcher is equal to Carlton Fisk. This time, his naked hyperbolethon is trying to build Johnny Damon into something he isn’t, maybe hoping the Red Sox will sign him again. Boras made the statement that it’s because of Johnny Damon that Derek Jeter had a career year. JD was so good that teams had to pitch to DJ because they so feared JD.

OK, Damon had a good year, but maybe it was because he was hitting behind Jeter. So maybe Damon won’t get the “same as Jeter” contract that Boras wants. But somebody will bite on Damon. There’s always someone who will buy the Boras lines and overpay for folks like Boras clients JD Drew and Dice-K. Let’s just hope that someone doesn’t do it again and bring back Damon to play left field.

I’ve got to admit I don’t know that much about Matt Holliday. He’s been a National Leaguer his whole career and the only extended view we had of him was in the ’07 World Series when he was 5 for 17 and got picked off first at a crucial point in the fourth game. But his 162-game average of .318/29/112 compares to .280/33/107 for Jason Bay. Holliday strikes out less (115 vs. 157) and is two years younger. Up until now, I thought that the best option was getting Bay back, but now I think Holliday might be the better option. Except that he’s a Boras client. Which means that there will be a lot of public negotiations with the Sox and Holliday will end up with the Yankees, who will swoop in at the last minute. Meanwhile Bay goes to Seattle and we end up with Johnny Damon.

Just the kind of ploy that works out great for Boras. His buddy Brian Cashman ends up with Holliday. He’s stripped the Red Sox of Bay. He’s hoodwinked Theo again. And Damon ends up overpaid based on a one-year resurgence, after which he will become old and injury-prone again.

And then there is Adrian Gonzalez, who is two years younger than Holliday. His 162-game average is .281/32/98, which makes him the statistical equivalent of Bay. But those numbers are in a huge ballpark in San Diego. If the Sox can trade for Gonzalez and sign either Bay or Holliday, that will provide some punch that was missing from the middle of the lineup last year.

But at this point it’s all rumor.

Lighting the Hot Stove

2009-11-08T09:43:00.000-05:00

Quote form Curt Schilling on WEEI:

"Oh, let's all cheer up because A-Rod's come full circle now. He's got his ring, he's complete, blah, blah, blah, whatever. Listen, they’re used to it, and they have to accept the fact that no one outside New York is even remotely happy today. OK, the Yankees won. Move on. When does spring training start? When do we sign free agents?”

Couldn’t agree more, so let’s turn the page and move on.

Lets start the off-season with Jeremy Hermedia. Back in August, I did a column on “average players.” According to Baseball-reference.com, the major league average batting average is .263, the average number of home runs a hit by a player is 16, and the average RBIs is 68. I found that the most average player in baseball was JD Drew’s brother Stephen, the Arizona shortstop. Through the 2009 season, his 162-game averages are .270/16/70. Well, that’s close, but our new outfielder, Hermedia, is closer at .265/18/66. Congratulations, Theo, you have traded for not just an average player, but THE average player. If he’s going to be a fourth outfielder, probably a good pickup, especially since we gave up nothing to get him. But if Jason Bay heads for the Yankees or wherever (and every indication so far is that the Sox don’t want to give him what he wants), Hermedia doesn’t cut it as a regular left fielder.

Too bad they didn’t wait a couple of days on Hermedia. Coco Crisp was released by the Royals!

So, what is the initial 2010 outlook? The Sox have a good base to start with, mainly players from the farm system. Youk, Pedroia and Ellsbury are into the prime of their careers and have shown what they can do. Ellsbury and Pedroia give the Sox a good start to the lineup and an ability to get on base. Youkilis is miscast as a cleanup hitter because he does not hit for genuine power, and probably never will be much more than a high-20s home run hitter. He is, however, a classic number 3 hitter. But so is Victor Martinez. They don’t have a true cleanup hitter. There aren’t many of those out there, and the farm system hasn’t produced a power hitter since Mo Vaughn, so they may have to consider trading for Adrian Gonzalez. Even if Bay comes back, they don’t seem to consider him a cleanup hitter despite leading the team in home runs and RBIs, and Matt Holliday is not one either.

The other issue is the older players playing like older players. While the Yankees older players all had not just good seasons, but career seasons (I wonder what’s in the water in the new stadium…HGH perhaps?), the Sox older players just got older. Lowell and Ortiz each have one more year left on their contracts and Varitek will likely exercise his $3 million option. Basically the team’s hands are tied. This might be a season like the Yankees had in 2008, where you have to take a year to blow out the roster and reload.

On the pitching side, things look better. With Beckett, Lester and Buccholz, the top of the rotation is OK. Wakefield falls into the Lowell/Ortiz/Varitek category. They could use a fifth starter and I’m not sure Michael Bowden is it. Hopefully, they will go out and get a pitcher without arm problems or issues. Erik Bedard, Jon Garland and Brett Myers are free agents, as is Randy Wolf if the club wants to go for a Type-A free agent (draft choice compensation required).

In the bullpen, it may be time to part with Manny Delcarmen. It’s nice to have a hometown player on the team, but his apparent inability to pitch in clutch situations is disturbing. Maybe going away from home will help. Bard looks ready to be the 8^th inning guy, and maybe the closer if they decide to put together a blockbuster trade for someone like Felix Hernandez and move Papelbon. One more arm would be helpful, perhaps someone like Kelvim Escobar, who is only 33, although it seems like he’s been around a lot longer.

The GM meetings are coming up this week, so next season is about to start. It’s going to be an interesting three months until it’s time to load up the truck.

Notes from the Evil Empire

2009-10-31T11:54:00.003-04:00

I asked a friend who is a lifelong Yankee fan for his take on the Series going into game 3. Here it is:

A-Roid and CC seem to have reverted to their past postseason selves. Strangely, NY is an 8-5 favorite to win it all, even with 3 of the remaining games in Philadelphia. Yanks are a slight favorite tonight, which I assume is based on Hamels' lackluster record in 2009. Still, I think he will be tough tonight, especially on the lefties like Damon, Matsui and Cano. The pitchers get to bat tonight, which could be in Philly's favor.

Even though the Game 3 winner of a 1-1 series goes on to win the title most of the time, that may not be the case in 2009. This has the makings of a long series, which we have not seen since 2002 (7 games) and 2003 (6).

I don't agree with those who think Pedro Martinez should have been yanked after six innings, even though he had made a lot of pitches. They removed him in the earlier series after he pitched a two-hit masterpiece, and ended up losing the game. I'm an old-school guy who thinks starters should go as long as possible, even a full nine innings, especially when the DH is in play.

Evidently, Sabathia has demanded to pitch Game 4, which he might get to do if NY loses Saturday. Be careful what you ask for; you just might get it! I suppose he's a better alternative than anyone else. If it goes the distance, we should see CC vs Hamels in Game 7 on Thursday, unless of course it's snowed out or pre-empted by an American Idol reunion show!

The Series Moves to Philly

2009-10-31T09:57:00.001-04:00

Can you believe it’s four weeks since the regular season ended and we’re still playing baseball? I think pitchers and catchers report next week. If it goes much longer, Santa Claus will be out and the Philly fans can boo him again.

The amazing thing about the first two World Series games is the starting pitching on both sides, which has been pretty much lights out except for giving up home runs, and not too many of those. Pedro got the loss in game two because his bullpen failed him, and he was also left in too long. Should have come out after six. Charlie Manuel, meet Grady Little.

At this point I think New York has the advantage, even with the next three games in Philadelphia, because of their pitching. I give Pettite the advantage tonight with his experience and Hamels having a so-so season, going 10-11 for a team that won 93 games. And then in game four, the Phillies go to their number four starter, Joe Blanton, against Sabathia on short rest. Remember that CC went on threedays’ rest for the entire second half of 2008 at Milwaukee, as the Brewers were intent on running him into the ground, knowing that he would be gone to the Yankees after the season. Then he reached the playoffs and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning against this Phillies team. And although he pitched well in game one, he did look tired once the middle innings rolled around. All of which is to say that it’s not a lock for New York with that pitching matchup, but for all their money, the Yankees do not have a fourth starter.

For years, bad teams in all sports have tried to turn themselves around by hiring successful assistants from winning teams who will, no doubt, replicate the success of the boss. More often than not, it doesn’t work. The Patriots did it several times in the 1960s and 1970s resulting in such disasters as Clive Rush, who was a Tom Landry assistant at Dallas. The Bruins tried it a couple of years ago, with disastrous results, bringing in Dave Lewis, a former Scotty Bowman assistant at Detroit. Several Bill Belichick (a Bill Parcells protégé) assistants have gone elsewhere with mixed results. Charlie Weis seems to have found his footing after several so-so years at Notre Dame and Josh McDaniels is certainly an early success at Denver. On the other hand, going to Cleveland is the kiss of death. Romeo Crennel was so successful there that he’s now a pitchman for beer, and Eric Mangini, fired at the J-E-T-S, is now struggling with the Browns.

Well, the assistant-plucking has hit the Red Sox hard this off-season. Theo’s top assistant, Jed Hoyer, is now the GM at San Diego. Let’s see how he does with the second-lowest payroll in baseball.

In Houston, where the ballpark has a locomotive in it, the train wreck that is the Astros hired Brad Mills, Tito’s bench coach, to be the new manager, replacing former Sox first baseman Cecil Cooper. The Astros were in the World Series only four years ago, but that team is history, its best players gone to retirement and the Dodgers. It could be a long, slow climb for Mills.

Speaking of the Dodgers and train wrecks, when the Sox were for sale, how many of us were hoping that Frank McCourt would buy the team and build a new ballpark on one of his parking lots in Southie? Well, let’s be glad he didn’t. With his marriage breaking up very publicly and very badly, the Dodgers are going to suffer and may end up being sold. The reason the Padres hit the skids was the owner’s divorce. One of baseball’s crown-jewel franchises in Los Angeles deserves better than that.

The Series Finally Arrives

2009-10-27T07:09:00.001-04:00

Does this season seem a lot longer than other seasons? Well, consider that the 2004 World Series ended on October 27. The 2009 World Series starts on October 28.

Yes, five years ago today, under a red moon, the Red Sox reversed the curse.

It also seems longer because we have to keep talking about the Yankees and their quest for….what number was it? I forget. Oh yeah, 27.

So, let us be brief when talking about the 2009 Yankees. There is enough written about them anyway, and just imagine how many books will be out this winter. (Born to Sit on the Bench, the Brett Gardner Story) First of all, isn’t it amazing that so many of the 30+-year-olds on the Yankees basically had career years while so many of the Red Sox 30+-year-olds crashed and burned in 2009. Must be the water in New York. Or maybe it’s something IN the water. Human Gro…..nah, couldn’t be. No true Yankee would take performance-enhancing drugs, would they?

The Yankees were second in the American League in team batting, first in home runs, RBIs, hits and runs scored. Sort of cleaned up there. Pitching-wise they were third in team ERA. When you spend half-a-billion dollars to buy players you should expect numbers like that.

The Phillies are making their second consecutive trip to the Series this year, so they bring experience to the table. Confronted with pitching problems, they went out and got Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, who combined to go 12-5 down the stretch. By the end of the year their team ERA was 4.16, which was 6^th in the National League. They may start Lee and Martinez in games one and two, both former American Leaguers (and Cy Young winners) who are familiar with pitching to the deeper American League lineups. Then it’s on to Joe Blanton (12-8) and Cole Hamels, who inexplicably only won ten games this season.

Playing in a very small ballpark their home run numbers are high, but Yankee Stadium leads the majors in home runs (when you spend one-and-a-half billion dollars of the taxpayer’s money to build it, your ballpark should lead the majors in home runs), so the ballpark should not be a factor. The Phils hit 224 home runs, (20 fewer than the Yankees), scored 820 runs (95 fewer than the Yankees), had 1439 hits (165 fewer than the Yankees) and had a .258 team batting average (15 percentage points less than the Yankees).

This one looks like a no-brainer.

The Yankees hit a lot more home runs, scored a lot more runs, had a lot more hits and a much higher batting average. Hitting advantage: Yankees.

The Yankees team ERA was higher, but American League ERAs are always higher. Yankee pitchers gave up 93 fewer hits and struck out 107 more against stronger lineups. Plus, the Phillies closer, Brad Lidge, failed miserably in 2009, going 0-8 with a 7.21 ERA (and we thought Papelbon had a bad year), while Mariano Rivera was Mariano Rivera. Pitching advantage: Yankees.

I hate to say it, but Yankees in five games. I hope I’m wrong.

A Look Back

2009-10-16T21:17:00.003-04:00

Well, we’ve had a few days to reflect on the 2009 season, and it’s time to give out the grades. As we did at midseason, everybody is graded as either exceeding, meeting, or coming in below expectations.

STARTING PITCHING

Josh Beckett: Started weak, had a strong mid-season and ended weak. You look up and he’s 17-6, 3.86 and you ask how he did that. At the beginning of the year we were asking which Josh Beckett we would get, 2008 or 2007. It turned out we got both. Meets expectations.

Jon Lester: Almost an identical year to Beckett in terms of weak/strong/weak to end up 15-8, 3.41 with 225 strikeouts in 203 innings. We expected a lot, he delivered a lot. Meets expectations.

Tim Wakefield: An all-star first half in which he led the league with 11 wins, but the usual injuries cost him the second half of the season, which is a shame. When healthy, he gave the Sox exactly what they needed: A guy that could go out there and keep them in the game. Meets expectations.

Clay Buchholz: Finally got his chance after Penny and Smoltz both washed out, and in half a season he produced 7 wins. Seems to be finally living up to the potential and is already penciled in as the #3 starter in 2010. Exceeds expectations.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: It was more important to him to look good for the WBC than for the team that is paying him $10 mil a year, and that’s inexcusable. Blew out his arm training for a meaningless exhibition series and was basically useless. Below expectations.

John Smoltz: Was expected to be the John Smoltz of old. Instead was the John Wasdin of old. Below expectations.

Brad Penny: Got off to a good start, sort of, but with 160 hits in 130 innings, he could never get out of the fifth inning. Below expectations.

RELIEF PITCHING

Hideki Okajima: All in all, another quality year from the quiet lefthander, with six wins and 53 strikeouts in 61 innings. Meets expectations.

Takashi Saito: Coming off an arm injury at age 39, Saito had an ERA of 2.43 and 52 strikeouts in 50 innings. Meets my expectations, but not Theo’s, who has released him in hopes of getting Saito back at a cheaper price.

Manny Delcarmen: Since Delcarmen is the only native Bostonian on the team, we all want him to succeed. He just still can’t seem to pitch in clutch situations or with men on base which is, after all, the main job of a reliever. Maybe he needs to get away from home. Below expectations.

Ramon Ramirez: Led the team with 70 relief appearances. Not a strikeout pitcher, walks a lot of #8 and #9 types of hitters, and doesn’t inspire confidence. But the numbers were decent, 7-4 2.84 so I guess he meets expectations.

Daniel Bard: I saw him strike out the side on nine pitches at Pawtucket, so expectations were high. I’d say 41 hits in 49 innings and an eye-popping 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings pitched exceeds expectations for any rookie thrown into a pennant race.

Jonathan Papelbon: It seemed like every game he pitched was a disaster waiting to happen. And in Game Three the disaster finally happened. Bad timing. He did have 38 saves, which is what he is supposed to do. But did every save have to be a roller coaster ride? Meets expectations

All the others: With a bunch of ERAs around 8 or 9, they can pretty much go back to Pawtucket or wherever they came from. Incomplete.

CATCHING

Jason Varitek: Not much was expected. He hit .220 last year and went down closer to the Mendoza Line this year. Sad to say, the Captain has had it. Let’s just hope he has the good sense to retire and go out with some class instead of embarrassing himself by squeezing one more $3 million out of the game. He’ll make a great coach or manager. Even hitting just .209 he comes in below expectations.

Victor Martinez: Is known for his hitting and did not disappoint, hitting .336 with 41 RBIs for Boston (.303 with 108 RBIs overall) and providing some stability in the #3 slot. Can’t seem to throw anybody out (only 11%), and that is a concern, but overall a good addition. Meets expectations.

George Kottaras: Did a good job catching Tim Wakefield before taking one for the team with a phantom injury to allow Victor Martinez on the roster. Not much of a hitter, but .237 should be good enough to be a backup somewhere if not here. Meets expectations.

INFIELDERS

Kevin Youkilis: Consistent April to October at the plate and on the field even as moved from first to third and back again every day. Numbers were down a bit all around, but not significantly, given that the moves across the diamond had to be distracting. Meets expectations.

Dustin Pedroia: The 2008 MVP year was probably his career year, so this year’s numbers weren’t as good. But nobody plays the game harder, nobody dives after more ground balls, nobody sparks this team like Pedey. Exceeds expectations.

Mike Lowell: The hip was an issue, he would lose a footrace to any of the Molinas, but he still plays the game with determination. Even with the injury, he still hit .290 and is the epitome of class. Exceeds expectations.

Alex Gonzalez: After he arrived the Sox went from 8^th in team defense to 6^th. That’s why he was brought aboard. Meets expectations.

Nick Green: As the only healthy shortstop in April, he became the starter and produced an excellent first half of the season. He was wearing out by the time Gonzo got here, and cost the team a couple of games with wild throws, but when you expect nothing and get something, that’s the definition of exceeds expectations.

Julio Lugo: Say it with me now…below expectations.

Jed Lowrie: Spent more time on the DL than on the active roster. A lost year for Lowrie and now, for the third year in a row, he’ll have to prove himself again. Incomplete.

OUTFIELDERS

Jason Bay: Struck out a lot, which lowered his batting average, but posted power and RBI numbers very similar to Mark Texeira and way above his lifetime averages. Good luck in NY or SF. Exceeds expectations.

Jacoby Ellsbury: After being dropped to the #7 slot in the order midseason, rebounded to become the leadoff hitter that everybody thought he was going to be. One of only three regulars with a .300+ batting average, and don’t forget the 70 stolen bases. Exceeds expectations.

JD Drew: Remember that despite the superstar salary, what we expect from JD is “average.” We got more than that with a .279 season and 24 home runs. Also overlooked is his ability to run down balls headed toward Pesky’s Pole. Usually is below expectations, so this year raised his game to meets expectations, based on more or less earning his salary

RESERVES

Rocco Baldelli: Nobody knew, really, what to expect from Baldelli this year, but he proved to be the only reclamation job that worked out as a pinch hitter or a spot start in the outfield. Meets expectations.

Casey Kotchman: Proved to be a warm body and not much more, hitting just .218 in Boston. Below expectations.

Josh Reddick: Overmatched and underwhelming. Played like a guy up from Double-A. Oh yeah, that’s what he was,so I guess he meets expectations.

Mark Kotsay: Tell me again, why was he traded? The Sox lost a lot of flexibility and could have used him more than Kotchman, Reddick or the six games we got out of Adam LaRoche (tell me again, why was he ever here?). Meets expectations.

DESIGNATED HITTER

David Ortiz: The two-month long slump doomed Big Papi to a sub-par year. Even though he ended up with 28 home runs and 99 RBIs, which project out to a decent year, when you’re Big Papi, more is expected. Below expectations.

MANAGEMENT

Terry Francona: Took a flawed team with pitching that went from “too much” to “not enough” almost overnight and not enough power and still made the playoffs with 95 wins. Meets expectations.

Theo Epstein: While the Yankees spent the money to get the Mercedes free agents, the Sox didn’t, and got the Yugo free agents (or maybe I should say Lugo free agents), breaking down almost immediately. This team didn’t have enough to compete for the division let alone the World Series. Below expectations.

The final totals:

7 exceeds expectations (20%)
16 meets expectations (46%)
10 below expectations(28%)
2 incomplete (6%)

In order to win a championship, a team needs a lot of players to have, if not career years, better than average years. In the end, too many players had average or below average seasons.

You can argue that this team won 95 games, but expectations are higher than they are in, say, Toronto or even Detroit. A player that meets expectations here would exceed everybody’s wildest expectations in Pittsburgh and probably would be traded out of town for a couple of second-rate prospects.

The Season Ends

2009-10-11T20:21:00.002-04:00

It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.
- A. Bartlett Giamatti, Commissioner of Baseball 1988-89

Not a Good Start

2009-10-10T14:45:00.000-04:00

I woke up this morning thinking that it was Saturday but not being too sure. It’s that playoff zombie feeling from too many late-night games. But it doesn’t look like I’ll have this feeling much longer because it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will last much longer this year.

While the Yankees are staging ninth-inning comebacks and walk-off wins, the Sox are just trying to stay in the game, and not doing a very good job of that. A .131 batting average and two runs scored is not a recipe for playoff success.

This is a recap of the 2009 regular season condensed into two games. Boston hitters would feast on the bottom-dwelling teams and go south against good teams. Get swept by the Yankees? No problem, the Royals or Orioles are coming to town. The inability of this team to hit against the better teams was masked by its prowess against teams with losing records.

Now, in the playoffs, there are no weak teams. You can’t fatten up your average against the Indians. They’re playing golf right now and this isn’t better.

Meanwhile, the Angels just go on playing their brand of baseball, which puts pressure on a team no matter who it is. Hit and run, first to third, walk then steal second, two-out triples. The Angels have done it all. They may be geographically challenged about where they play, but they don’t have a problem with how they play.

They remind me of the 1970s and early 1980s small-ball teams that wore powder-blue uniforms and played on artificial turf in big, donut-shaped stadiums. Yup, the 1982 Cardinals of Ozzie Smith, Lonnie Smith, Willie McGee and Tommy Herr. Couldn’t hit home runs, but had five players with 19 or more steals, 87 total sacrifice hits, and were experts at bouncing the ball off that hard field for singles, doubles and triples. The team batting average was just .264, but they made every one of those hits count. When that team played the Dodgers, I’ll bet 23-year-old Mike Scioscia was watching and taking notes.

But, back to the Red Sox, who had eight strikeouts but only seven base runners last night. They’ve been in this situation before, of course. Remember Kevin Millar’s rant on the night of game four against the Yankees about how we have Schilling pitching tonight, then Pedro tomorrow and then game seven and anything can happen? Well, this year we have Buchholz then Matsuzaka and then game five and anything can happen. Not quite the same, is it?

The Divisional Series

2009-10-07T07:21:00.000-04:00

As always, the Yankees have all the advantages going into the playoffs. As always, the question is can they take advantage. While the New Yorkers have been resting and getting their pitching lined up, the Twins have been playing meaningful games and using up their pitching staff. So, after playing a four and a half hour game, using eight pitchers and flying all night to New York, Minnesota has to send Brian Duensing to the mound against probable Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia. Heard of Duensing? Probably not. He started the season in Rochester and tonight will make his 10th major league start.

The difference in payroll between the two teams? $150 million dollars. That means the difference between what each team spends on players is greater than the total payroll of 26 MLB teams.

The Twins are one of the teams that I really admire. They can’t afford to keep the players they have, like Johann Santana and Torii Hunter, but their player development machine keeps churning out replacements. Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Span, Liriano, Baker. They’ve won five AL Central titles in the last eight years. And, this year, with former MVP Justin Morneau down with an injury, players like Jason Kubel have stepped up big time while the team gets stretch-run acquisitions Carl Pavano and Orlando Cabrera, who always seems to end up on a division winner.

But, in the end, big money beats big hearts. Yanks sweep on their way to the championship. When you spend half a billion dollars in the off-season it should buy you a winner.

And, or course, the schedule favors the Yankee fans. While their games start at 6:07 (not 6:05 or 6:10, but 6:07), us Sox fans have to wait until almost bedtime for our games to start.

Meanwhile, on the other coast, it’s the Sox and Anaheim Angels Not of Los Angeles. Pitching is pretty even. On the surface the Sox seem to have better relievers, but the imploding Sox bullpen over the last two months inspires anything but confidence. Both teams can hit. The deal-maker/deal-breaker in this series is that the Angels run every chance they get and the Red Sox can’t stop any team or any player from running.

Much has been made about the way Boston has handled the Angels in the postseason going back to 1986 (maybe Dave Henderson should throw out a first pitch). But that is basically a statistical anomaly, and statistical anomalies usually even themselves out. Sorry to say, but looking at this objectively, Angels 3-2 in this one.
In the National League, I hope the Phillies get to the World Series just because I’d rather see Pedro in there than Manny or John Smoltz or Jason Giambi.

A Series of Things

2009-10-04T11:06:00.000-04:00

No team wins all of its games. In fact, teams almost never win two-thirds of their games. So, given the expectation that you will lose some games, a good indicator of how you do in a season is how many series you win or lose. This year the Red Sox had 18 series wins, 10 losses and 2 splits before the All-Star break. The Yankees were 18-10-2 in the same period, which explains how the teams stayed close for the first half of the season. After the break, though, the Sox went 12-9-2, while the Yankees were 17-5-1, pulling eight games ahead in the AL East.

There will be no more Wedgies in Cleveland as manager Eric Wedge was fired effective at the end of the season. The Indians blow out all their good players every few years and get prospects to start rebuilding all over again. They did it in the late ’90s with the Lofton/Manny/Thome/Vizquel/Travis Fryman/Bartolo Colon teams, getting players like Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore in return. This year, the Indians started the season with players like Mark De Rosa (now with the Cardinals), Victor Martinez (now with the Sox), Ben Francisco and Cliff Lee (gone to Philly), Ryan Garko (Giants) and Rafael Betencourt (Rockies). Now, it’s back to the youth movement with Matt LaPorta from Milwaukee last year, Andy Marte, Lou Marson over from the Phillies, Michael Brantley and Luis Vanbuena. It’s pretty tough to have to rebuild all the time, and the manager often takes the blame.

Meanwhile, in Toronto, General Manager J.P. Ricciardi was tossed after eight years. Being from Worcester, Ricciardi was interviewed a lot in the local media and always seemed to say the same thing, “We don’t have the money to compete with the Red Sox and the Yankees.” And he was right. The Jays could put together enough talented players to be competitive, but were never able to go after the big free agents. They always could get the Lyle Overbays and B.J. Ryans of the baseball world, but were never able to bring in a game-changing player. He did sign A.J. Burnett and Frank Thomas, but Burnett was inconsistent for his first two seasons and Thomas was a bust. The club developed some excellent players in Adam Lind and Aaron Hill, but there weren’t enough good players around them. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and David Purcey are all developing into good starters, but it will be the next GM who will reap the benefits. Then there were the injuries to Jesse Litsch, Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan, who were all hurt this year. Now it’s up to the new GM to sort out the pieces but, in the end, it all comes down to payroll, and unless the Jays can find lightning in a bottle for a couple of years like the Rays did last year, this same story will be written again a couple of seasons from now. Another example of how baseball needs a salary cap.

John Smoltz has come down to earth in St. Louis, where he is 0-3 with three no-decisions in his last six starts. Brad Penny, on the other hand, is 4-1 with the Giants and pitched a six-hit shutout in his last start. But the best former Sox pitcher out there right now is Pedro Martinez, who is 5-1, 3.63 ERA in nine starts for the Phillies.

Whether the Sox begin the postseason on Wednesday or Thursday, get ready for some 10:00 starts.

What If...

2009-10-02T11:05:00.002-04:00

One of my most memorable “Saturday Night Live” sketches was called “What If.” It was one of the pseudo-PBS shows in which Dan Aykroyd hosted a bunch of pseudo-pseudo-intellectuals debating topics like “What if Superman grew up in Germany, instead of America?" or “What if Eleanor Roosevelt could fly?”

Well, twice last week the Red Sox played “What If.” First, the question was “What if we used only Pawsox pitchers in a real Major League game?” Then there was “What if we used only Pawsox position players in a real Major League game?” Either way, it didn’t work out.

The pitchers’ game was necessitated by Josh Beckett’s back problems. He was scratched at the last minute and the emergency starter was Michael Bowden (4-6, 3.13 for Pawtucket). He gave up seven runs in three innings. Then came Hunter Jones (4-3, 4.25 for Pawtucket). He was followed by Dustin Richardson (2-2, 2.55 for Portland and Pawtucket), who was summoned to Boston from his home in Kansas to fill a roster spot. Manny Delcarmen, who has been pitching like a minor leaguer lately, finished the game off. Final score: Toronto 11, Boston 5 in a rain-shortened seven innings.

Two days later, with the Sox having clinched the Wild Card, it was Futures at Fenway time again. Tim Wakefield was totally ineffective as the starter, but the other nine guys in the lineup were even more ineffective as hitters, with Joey Gathright (.325 at Pawtucket), Josh Reddick (.127 in 18 games), Goerge Kottaras (.294 in 10 games), Brian Anderson (.228), Jed Lowrie (.176) and Chris Woodward (.129) combining to go 2-for-17 (Gathright had two singles). Where was Iggy Suarez when we needed him?

Well, those two games proved one thing: These guys are not ready for prime time.

In good news, Jon Lester showed that he’s OK, pitching a very Lester-like game in his final start of the regular season, giving up two hits and striking out seven. That’s one playoff question answered. We’ll have another answer tonight as Dice-K gets another start. He still makes me nervous. His first game back, he pitched like a different guy, challenging hitters and throwing strikes. Last time out, he was back to being “The Nibbler.” Against the Anaheim Angels, every nibble gives the Angels a greater chance to create mayhem on the basepaths.

Most teams have some sort of Fan Appreciation event at the end of the season. They give away good stuff to their loyal fans, things like game-worn shirts, bobbleheads and stuff like that. This year, the Sox are having their own Fan Appreciation events and, according to the official release, “ARAMARK vendors will also be providing lucky fans, selected randomly throughout the ballpark, with complimentary peanuts and Cracker Jacks during the 7th inning stretch of each game.” Your support is worth peanuts to us.

Wild Time

2009-09-30T07:31:00.001-04:00

If a team clinches something, and it really isn’t a “championship” of anything (no matter what the hats say), and it happens because of something another team does, and there’s a celebration, but it happens three hours after the game and no reporters are allowed to watch, did something really get clinched?

That’s the question this morning after the Angels beat the Rangers to put the Red Sox into postseason play for the sixth time in the last seven years. Of course it is all a moot point if the Sox can’t get their pitching straightened out, and fast.

Something has gone wrong each of the last four days, so the next week, when the starters make one final appearance before the playoffs begin next Wednesday or Thursday, will be crucial in determining Boston’s playoff pitching rotation.

First it was Jon Lester getting hit hard by the Yankees, literally. Then it was Josh Beckett being pulled from a start because of back spasms. He had three cortisone shots, and will get a final regular-season start next Saturday. Finally, Clay Buchholz got hammered by the Blue Jays to complete the trifecta. There are your top three starters for the playoffs.

And, as for number four, Tim Wakefield starts tonight to test his body again, as though all the back and leg problems that have kept him on the DL for most of the second half of the season will just go away and he’ll be fine to pitch through October. If he can’t continue, we’re left with Paul Byrd.

This presents pitching coach John (let me jot that down) Farrell with the biggest dilemma/challenge of his time with the Sox. Usually, teams give their pitchers a final tune-up start before the playoffs begin. Farrell has to find out if his three top pitchers can actually pitch. With Byrd as the fourth starter, there really are no other options at this point. Ironic isn’t it? The team that supposedly had too much pitching in May is now struggling to find enough pitchers to round out the rotation when it really counts.

And the Sox bullpen is not settled either. The supposed “best bullpen in baseball’ has been getting lit up lately on a regular basis. Hideki Okajima was sent back to Boston during the road trip with arm issues. Manny Delcarmen is now officially useless while Daniel Bard and Billy Wagner are taking turns being ineffective. For the last couple of weeks, the best pitchers leading up to Papelbon have been “Oh No” Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito.

At least after Monday night we know that one option will not be Michael Bowden, Hunter Jones and Dustin Richardson.

By the way, the Sox have now been the Wild Card playoff entry six times. Hooray! We set a record for finishing second!